Real Madrid vs Barcelona predictions: Los Blancos to edge El Clasico thriller

LaLiga leaders Barcelona face their sternest test of the season on Sunday when they make the trip to the Santiago Bernabeu to take on Real Madrid, who are only behind them on goal difference.

Both teams have yet to taste defeat domestically and are locked on 22 points each, with the Catalans’ plus-19 goal difference better than the plus-12 boasted by Los Blancos. 

Even though we are still at an early stage of the 2022-23 campaign, it feels like there is a lot riding on the first El Clasico of the season and this contest may just go the way of the reigning Spanish champions. 

Team news

Madrid will be without goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois for a fifth straight game because of a nerve injury, meaning Andriy Lunin will continue to deputise for the Belgian — but that is the only absentee for Carlo Ancelotti.

Barcelona are facing a selection headache at the back with Ronald Araujo, Hector Bellerin and Andreas Christensen on the sidelines, while forward Memphis Depay is also ruled out. 

The worries in defence could see Jules Kounde, who has not played since the 3-0 victory over Elche on September 17, rushed back to action sooner than planned. 

The stats

Ancelotti’s troops are undefeated in 13 matches across all competitions this season — winning 11 and drawing two — while they are unbeaten in their last seven home LaLiga games. 

The reigning European champions have scored 19 times in the league, but they have also been prone to a mistake at the back and have only kept one clean sheet from five assignments at the Santiago Bernabeu this season. 

Xavi’s challengers are the leading scorers in the Spanish top flight, notching 20 times, while they boast the meanest defence with just one solitary goal conceded. 

However, it has been a different story in the Champions League and a 2-0 defeat at Bayern Munich and a 1-0 loss against Inter Milan in Italy among their four games so far has left the Catalans on the brink of an early exit from Europe’s elite competition. 

Barca have had the most shots on target in the league so far, amassing 54, but Madrid are only three behind with 51 attempts hitting the mark. 

Prediction

Normally it would be hard to oppose a side that have conceded just once in the league all season, but there are big defensive selection issues for Xavi to deal with and that could play into the hands of the hosts. 

Of Madrid’s five home matches this term, three have ended up with them winning and both teams scoring, while they have also dominated recent El Clasico history when there are goals at each end. 

The last four encounters that these two have both scored in have all ended up going in the favour of Los Blancos, who ran out 3-2, 2-1 (twice) and 3-1 winners, and the 23/10 on Sunday’s hosts to triumph and BTTS is worthy of consideration.