MY ACCOUNT
– Tottenham have been slow starters recently before improving
– Leeds have been all action this season but are defensively vulnerable
– Recommended bet: Tottenham to win from behind
A poor run sees Tottenham heading towards the World Cup break on something of a low, with Antonio Conte’s men losing four of their last seven Premier League games, while they were also dumped out of the Carabao Cup by Nottingham Forest.
Leeds seem to have navigated a recent crisis after they ended a run of eight winless matches in spectacular style by beating Liverpool 2-1 at Anfield and following up with victory over Bournemouth last weekend.
However, the chaotic nature of that most recent 4-3 success against the Cherries suggests that Leeds manager Jesse Marsch still has plenty of work to do before proclaiming the Whites fully fixed.
Leeds went 1-0 up and then 3-1 down and Bournemouth could have been out of sight at one stage but failed to capitalise on a couple of golden opportunities to make it four or five.
Marsch may have to consider whether it is wise to be so open against a Tottenham side who have not looked at their best of late but retain a potent attacking threat and will not be as generous in defence.
Team news
Conte was able to bring on attacking options Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski in the second half of Tottenham’s midweek defeat in the Carabao Cup and both players should be ready to start this weekend.
Fellow frontman Heung-Min Son will again miss out with a fractured eye socket and centre-back Cristian Romero is out with a muscle issue.
Marsch is without a number of players for the trip to north London.
Forwards Luis Sinisterra and Joe Gelhardt are both expected to miss out, while striker Patrick Bamford is a significant doubt with a groin issue.
Defender Stuart Dallas has been absent all season and remains sidelined alongside midfielder Adam Forshaw.
The stats
Leeds’ victory at Anfield a fortnight ago was their first away win of the season and the Whites had lost the previous four league away games at Leicester 2-1, Crystal Palace 2-1, Brentford 5-2 and Brighton 1-0.
While Marsch’s men are a top-half side in terms of goals scored, defensively they are not as good as only six teams have conceded more than them in the Premier League this term.
Tottenham’s slow starts can be seen in the difference between their first and second-half records.
Spurs have won the first half of just five of their 14 matches this season, losing four of those games and conceding more goals than they have scored in the opening 45 minutes.
But Conte’s men have won the second half in nine of their 14 games, scoring a whopping 18 goals in the second 45 minutes and conceding just eight times after the break.
Prediction
Tottenham have looked leggy in recent weeks and Conte has seemingly adopted an approach of playing a defensive, low-energy, low-risk style in the first half in an attempt to conserve his team for a second-half barrage.
It is a tactic that often has not worked out and has allowed Spurs’ opposition to score first in each of their last seven outings.
Manchester United, Newcastle and Liverpool — and Nottingham Forest in a lower-priority Carabao Cup — have all done enough to hold one for a win.
But Tottenham were able to turn the tide away at Bournemouth to come back from two goals down to win 3-2, while they also turned a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 in Marseille in Europe.
VAR denied them also getting a late winner in a 1-1 draw against Sporting in which the Portuguese side scored first.
Marsch’s all-out attacking style suggests that pattern could continue this weekend and if Tottenham are sluggish at the outset they could easily again concede before they get going.
However, Leeds’ defensive frailty and the return to fitness of Richarlison and Kulusevski means that Tottenham should be able to do enough to win, even if they suffer an early setback.
Backing a Tottenham win in which both teams score looks a decent play at 8/5, but given the pattern of recent Spurs matches, it is tempting to go with a Tottenham win from behind, available at 5/1 with LiveScore Bet.
