MY ACCOUNT
– Newcastle have only lost once across all competitions this season
– The Magpies have the joint-best defensive record in the division
– Recommended bet: Newcastle to finish in the top four
Premier League fans went into 2022-23 expecting more of the same — Manchester City and Liverpool battling for the title, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham scrapping for Champions League places and Arsenal missing out for a seventh successive season.
But stunning starts from the Gunners and Newcastle have blown the title and top-four races wide open and as many as three of the traditional big six may yet miss out on Champions League football.
The state of play
Arsenal and Manchester City look secure in the Champions League places, sitting on 37 and 32 points respectively.
While an injury to Gabriel Jesus may hinder the Gunners’ title tilt, Mikel Arteta’s side have dropped points on just two occasions this season and, with 11 points between them and fifth-placed Manchester United, they look assured of a top-four berth along with second-placed City.
Sitting third are Newcastle on 30 points, followed by Tottenham on 29 then the Red Devils on 26 — with a game in hand but a significantly worse goal difference.
Sixth-placed Liverpool are four points behind United while seventh-placed Brighton and eighth-placed Chelsea are tied on 21 points.
Blues set to miss out
While experience and quality counts for plenty, it is hard to make a case for backing Chelsea at 7/2 with LiveScore Bet for a top-four finish when Brighton, who beat the Blues 4-1 earlier this season, are 18/1 and above Graham Potter’s men on goal difference.
Chelsea have not won any of their six meetings with top-half opponents and two of just six wins against bottom-half teams were fortunate, with Crystal Palace and West Ham both unlucky to lose to the Blues.
Potter’s troops have yet to play away at any of the big six and have already lost at Newcastle, Brighton, Leeds and Southampton.
Liverpool look poor value
With the top two surely nailed on and those below sixth seemingly with too much to do, the scrap for the final two Champions League places realistically looks set to be fought out between Newcastle, Tottenham, Manchester United and Liverpool.
Within that four-way scrap, it is odd to see the Reds as short as 4/7 when third-placed Newcastle are 11/8 with LiveScore Bet.
Liverpool have title-winning quality but also have problems in midfield and attack, with Luiz Diaz ruled out until March. They also have eight points to make up on a Newcastle side who have no European distractions and can focus fully on domestic matters.
While the Reds’ impressive record against the Champions League contenders this term will play a part in their price, that record is slightly misleading as Jurgen Klopp’s men were fortunate in victories over Newcastle and Tottenham.
A 1-0 home win over Manchester City was well-deserved but Liverpool were poor in defeat to the Red Devils and Arsenal, and have also dropped points in six of the nine games against teams below them.
Two from three?
While Liverpool are unappealing favourites among Manchester United, Tottenham and Newcastle, the other three each have reason to recommend them
Spurs have lost all four meetings with fellow top-six teams but were unfortunate in their defeats to Newcastle and Liverpool.
They have not been spectacular but Antonio Conte’s team have been relentless in the easier games, dropping just four points in 11 meetings with teams outside the top six.
It may not be exciting but if pragmatic Spurs keep harvesting the points against the lesser sides, they will need only a handful of positive results in the big matches — they appeal at evens with LiveScore Bet.
United are still in transition under Erik ten Hag and fluctuate between brilliant and wasteful. The Red Devils were imperious when beating Spurs 2-0 win at Old Trafford but followed up with a tepid draw at Chelsea and defeat at Aston Villa.
Heavy defeats at Villa, Brentford and rivals City undermine confidence in backing them at 5/4 with LiveScore Bet.
That leaves Newcastle, who appeal at 11/8 with LiveScore Bet.
The newly moneyed club have a strong spine, have lost just once all season — an unfortunate defeat at Anfield — despite having visited four of the top seven and also held City to a 3-3 draw at St James’ Park.
Eddie Howe’s men do not have European football to distract attention and induce fatigue, so a rock-solid team who have conceded just 11 goals in 15 matches could hold on to a top-four spot.
