MY ACCOUNT
– Brighton have lost only two of their last 10 Premier League games, winning six
– Fulham have lost only one of 16 matches against teams outside the top five this season
– Recommended bet: Draw
Few would have predicted at the start of the 2022-23 season, that a meeting between Brighton and Fulham would be a crucial clash in the race for European places, but both clubs will have their eye on a continental jaunt.
Visitors Fulham are arguably in a slightly false position as they have played more games than most around them to gain their seventh-place standing.
However, they have certainly been a top-half team in terms of performance. Having bloodied the noses of some big clubs and fellow European chasers this season, Marco Silva’s team harbour realistic dreams of grabbing a Europa Conference League place.
However, Brighton will be setting their sights even higher. Roberto De Zerbi’s side would move up into fifth place if they won their two games in hand over Tottenham and would be right on the coattails of highflying Newcastle in the chase for Champions League places.
Team news
Brighton striker Danny Welbeck looks set to miss out with a calf problem, and centre-back Levi Colwill is also not expected back until next weekend.
Midfielder Jakub Moder is closing in on a return from an ACL tear that ruled him out for nearly a year, but he is still a week or two away.
Attacker Adam Lallana has an outside chance of featuring after a couple of weeks out with an injury.
Fulham could be without two of their most important attacking players, with striker Aleksandar Mitrovic and winger Willian both injury doubts due to respective foot and calf injuries. Mitrovic is rated more likely to feature, but it is doubtful that Willian will play.
Midfielder Tom Cairney is out with an ankle injury, and attacking midfielder Neeskens Kabano will likely miss the rest of the season with a ruptured Achilles.
The stats
There is a clear split in results when Fulham play the best and the rest in the Premier League, with the Cottagers losing all seven meetings with teams in the top five but losing just one of 16 matches against teams sitting below fifth, winning 10 of those.
That includes a 2-1 home win over Brighton in August, but the Seagulls are on the fringes between the best and the rest as they sit sixth and would move into fifth if they got a win and a draw from their two games in hand over Tottenham.
After a five-match winless streak in De Zerbi’s first five matches as manager, the Seagulls have now taken off; Brighton have lost just two of the subsequent 10 Premier League matches, winning six.
Fulham have proven similarly resilient, losing just four of their last 14 league games. Two of those were injury-time defeats to the two Manchester clubs, while the others were tight 1-0 losses to top-five pair Newcastle and Tottenham.
Prediction
Both managers and sets of players deserve enormous credit for their performances this season, and such has been their quality that it is hard to split the two teams.
Brighton are arguably the more aesthetically pleasing and deserve slight favouritism on home soil, but Fulham’s resilience makes short odds of 4/6 slightly unappealing about the home win.
Silva’s visitors have kept three clean sheets in their last five away games, including at Chelsea. During that run, top-four pair Manchester City and Newcastle both needed goals in the 89th minute or later to finally overcome the battling Cottagers.
The potential absence of Mitrovic and Willian undermines confidence in an upset but makes under 2.5 goals a sensible addition to Bet Builder selections, and Fulham can keep things tight but may struggle to put chances away.
But a straight bet on the draw at a big price could be the best bet as both teams have been impressive this season, and Silva and De Zerbi may each feel that a point is a decent return if the scores are level late on in the game.
Back the draw, available at 3/1 with LiveScore Bet.
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