MY ACCOUNT
– Fulham have an excellent record against teams outside the top five of the Premier League
– Wolves’ improved results may be more down to good fortune than solid improvement
– Recommended bet: Fulham to win
At the conclusion of last Saturday’s Premier League matches, Wolves supporters were scratching their heads at how they had lost a game they had dominated against Bournemouth, while Fulham fans were at a happy loss as to how they had robbed Brighton of all three points.
New Wolves manager Julen Lopetegui has helped pull the club up off the foot of the table with an impressive run of results, so a 1-0 home defeat to the Cherries in which they squandered a number of presentable opportunities will be seen as a frustrating break in momentum.
Fulham will be feeling conflicted after being thoroughly outplayed by Brighton but somehow walking away with another impressive result.
The performance may not have impressed Fulham boss Marco Silva but he will be delighted with his team’s spirit and aware that any victory away at red-hot Brighton is to be celebrated – and all the more so given it was achieved in the absence of star striker Aleksandar Mitrovic.
Fulham vs Wolves (Friday, 8pm)
Team news
Fulham striker Mitrovic remains a significant doubt due to a thigh injury while midfielder Tom Cairney is expected to be out for another week or so with an ankle problem. Winger Neeskens Kebano is out for the season with a ruptured Achilles.
Wolves remain without attacking trio Sasa Kalajdzic, Hee-Chan Hwang and Chiquinho, who have been restricted to just a handful of appearances between them this season due to lengthy absences.
Midfielder Boubacar Traore has also endured an injury-hit campaign and is not expected back until early March, but Mario Lemina returns to midfield after serving his one-match suspension.
The stats
While Fulham were fortunate to take all three points against Brighton, last weekend’s victory maintained a clear contrast in the Cottagers’ results against teams inside and outside the current top five.
Silva’s men have yet to take a single point from seven matches against the top five but have won 11 of 19 games against the rest and have lost only one, averaging 2.24 points per game against those below them in the league.
While Wolves have enjoyed an upturn in performances under Lopetegui, the results have largely been solid rather than spectacular – with the notable exception of their 3-0 defeat of Liverpool. Each of the other four victories under Lopetegui have come either against teams in the bottom five of the Premier League or cup opponents from League Two.
The underlying stats also suggest Wolves have been fortunate to come away with four wins from eight league games since the World Cup, with each of Everton, West Ham and Southampton outperforming them on expected goals despite slipping to defeat.
Prediction
Fulham were poor last weekend but the performance has to be put in context given they were visiting arguably the league’s most in-form team away at Brighton.
The fact that Silva’s men were able to dig in and nick a winner speaks well of the resolve within the Fulham ranks and if the Cottagers can get key man Mitrovic back for Friday night’s game, then we can expect the hosts to be vastly improved in the final third.
Wolves, on the other hand, may be flattering to deceive to some degree.
There has certainly been an upturn under Lopetegui but the bar was set extremely low prior to his arrival and perhaps the defeat to Bournemouth reflects a turn in their luck rather than a significant change in performance levels.
They will be put to the test against a resilient Fulham side who have kept clean sheets against Brighton, Nottingham Forest and Chelsea in their last three league outings, so backing under 2.5 goals looks a sensible addition to Bet Builder combinations.
However, the best bet is to back a straight home win given Fulham’s excellent record against teams outside the top five and the nagging suspicion that Wolves have been riding their luck in recent weeks.
