MY ACCOUNT
– Leicester have looked like a different team since James Maddison returned to full fitness
– Arsenal are struggling to find top gear, dropping points in three of their last four league games
– Recommended bet: Leicester or draw double chance
Dan Sait correctly predicted RB Leipzig would win in the double chance market on Wednesday, and he expects Leicester to do the same when they host Arsenal this weekend.
Arsenal ended their mini-slump with a last-gasp victory over Aston Villa last Saturday and were further boosted when rivals Manchester City unexpectedly dropped points against Nottingham Forest.
The Gunners were understandably buoyant as those results saw Mikel Arteta’s men regain the initiative in the Premier League title race, going two points clear at the top of the table with a game in hand.
However, Aston Villa should have been easier prey for the league leaders, given they suffered emphatic defeats in their two previous outings against Manchester City and Arsenal’s hosts this weekend, Leicester.
The Foxes suffered a 3-0 loss at Old Trafford last weekend, but Manchester United goalkeeper David de Gea was forced into two world-class saves before in-form United striker Marcus Rashford turned the flow of the match.
That defeat ended a run of positive results for Brendan Rodgers’ men, who will be eager to bounce back and prove themselves against a slightly out-of-form Arsenal side.
Team news
Leicester’s injury problems have started to clear up in recent weeks, but full-back James Justin is unlikely to return from a ruptured Achilles this season, and fellow full-back Ryan Bertrand is still a few weeks from returning after a lengthy lay-off with a knee injury.
Centre-back Jonny Evans has a thigh problem that will likely rule him out for a few weeks.
Arsenal striker Gabriel Jesus and midfielder Mohamed Elneny are both recovering from knee surgery, with Elneny out for an extended period and Jesus expected back within a week or two.
Defensive midfielder Thomas Partey is rated as 50/50 to return from a back problem that has ruled him out of the Gunners’ last two matches.
The stats
There is a strong correlation between Leicester’s results and the presence of key midfielder James Maddison. The Foxes have won five of the last seven Premier League matches he has started but have lost four and drawn one of the last five that he did not start.
Prior to Arsenal’s added-time victory over out-of-form Aston Villa last weekend, they had gone four matches without a win, drawing with Brentford, losing away at Everton and losing to Manchester City in both the Premier League and the FA Cup.
Indeed, Arsenal have only been comfortable winners in one of their last seven Premier League outings as they also drew with Newcastle in that run as well as needing a 90th-minute goal to beat Manchester United and leaving it until added time to see off Aston Villa.
With a record of three wins, two draws and two defeats in their last seven matches, Arsenal have dropped exactly twice as many points in 2023 as they had in 2022’s first 16 matches of the season.
Prediction
There are two ways to look at Arsenal’s 4-2 victory at Aston Villa last weekend.
On the one hand, they showed excellent fighting spirit, and no matter how late Arteta’s men left it, the Gunners were deserved winners on the balance of play.
However, it is also true that Arsenal made hard work of beating a Villa side who had been easily rolled over by Manchester City and Leicester in their previous two outings, with only a large slice of luck finally getting the Gunners their decisive 93rd-minute third goal.
While it is premature to suggest Arsenal are running out of steam, they are struggling to maintain their electric form of 2022, with a mixture of fatigue and expectation no doubt playing a part.
But their newfound defensive struggles are also clearly a factor, with Arsenal conceding nine goals in their last five games, as many as they had shipped in their previous 13 league games combined. That makes adding both teams to score an appealing option for Bet Builder selections.
However, at a slightly bigger price, it may pay to go even further and back another Arsenal setback, as Leicester have more than enough quality to test the top teams.
Rodgers’ men have not had the breaks in most of their meetings with the big six this term. Still, narrow 1-0 home defeats to both Manchester clubs, with the Foxes particularly unfortunate against City, suggest Leicester could nick a result against a slightly off-colour Arsenal side.
Back Leicester or draw double chance, available at 6/5 with LiveScore Bet.
