MY ACCOUNT
– Fewer than three goals have been scored in Chelsea’s last seven matches
– Fewer than three goals have been scored in Leeds’ last four games
– Recommended bet: Back Under 2.5 goals
Chelsea will attempt to return to winning ways and avenge last August’s 3-0 defeat to Leeds when they host the relegation-threatened Whites at Stamford Bridge on Saturday afternoon.
Graham Potter’s side, without a win in their last five Premier League games, crumpled in the second half of a 2-0 loss at Tottenham last weekend that piles even more pressure on the ex-Brighton boss.
Leeds’ new head coach Javi Gracia got off to a good start as his side dominated Southampton and deserved all three points from a 1-0 Elland Road victory last weekend.
And they were unlucky not to score against Fulham in the FA Cup fifth round on Tuesday in what eventually became a familiar tale of woe for the Yorkshire club in the capital.
Team news
Potter will need to find a replacement for injured centre-back Thiago Silva, who damaged knee ligaments in last Sunday’s loss at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Wesley Fofana was his choice off the bench against Spurs, but Benoit Badiashile could also earn a recall to feature alongside Kalidou Koulibaly.
Mateo Kovacic is available again after illness and could return to partner Enzo Fernandez in midfield while Mykhailo Mudryk and Mason Mount are in the mix to start if Potter tinkers with his attacking options.
N’Golo Kante (hamstring), Christian Pulisic (knee), Armando Broja (ACL), Edouard Mendy (finger) and Cesar Azpilicueta (head) remain out while Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella and David Datro Fofana were left out of the squad last weekend.
For Leeds, Rodrigo Moreno remains out of action with an ankle injury, so Patrick Bamford looks set to lead the forward line again.
Georgino Rutter started up top at Fulham in midweek, but Gracia is likely to revert to the formation and personnel that beat Southampton on Saturday with Jack Harrison and Brenden Aaronson restored.
Max Wober is a doubt with a shoulder injury he sustained against the Saints, so Rasmus Kristensen is on standby to reprise the central defensive role he undertook at Fulham.
Adam Forshaw (hip), Stuart Dallas (knee) and Luis Sinisterra (muscle) are still sidelined, while the club are being careful with Pascal Struijk’s reintroduction after observing the concussion protocol.
The stats
Potter has made a total of 79 changes to his starting XI in 18 Premier League games as Chelsea boss — and six apiece in his last two line-ups.
His search for an improved formula looks set to continue during the club’s dry goalscoring spell as Chelsea have scored a combined total of three goals in their last 10 games.
The Blues’ current run of five games without a victory is their second such run of the campaign, both of which have occurred under Potter.
You have to go back a decade to October-December 2012 for the last similarly bleak run of Blues’ results before that, when Chelsea’s winless streak stretched to seven games.
Leeds have not allowed their opponents an Opta-defined ‘big chance’ in either of Gracia’s two games in charge so far while two of the Whites’ four lowest xG against totals since the start of last season have been recorded under the Spaniard.
Leeds have lost on each of their four visits to the capital this season, going down 5-2 at Brentford, 2-1 at Crystal Palace, 4-3 at Spurs and 2-0 at Fulham.
The Whites have won only four and drawn five of their last 37 games in London.
Prediction
The Blues’ bluntness and Leeds’ improved defensive record suggest a low-scoring game could be on the cards at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea’s initial play at Tottenham was encouraging last week, but their positive work outside the box was in stark contrast to the indecision and lack of cohesion when a final ball was needed.
In a short amount of time with the Leeds players, Gracia has succeeded in making his team harder to beat, but they still do not fully convince in front of goal either.
Bamford has not yet been able to recapture his form in the Marcelo Bielsa era and he is probably still the team’s most reliable option up front.
Confidence is building in the Whites’ camp however, and it should help Leeds stem the flow of home attacks enough to keep them in the game and potentially offer a route to taking something back to West Yorkshire.
But their record of returning empty-handed from the capital is a concern.
Fewer than three goals have been scored in Chelsea’s last seven games and that looks like the trend to latch onto here.
Back Under 2.5 goals in the game at 19/20 with LiveScore Bet.
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