MY ACCOUNT
Manchester City gained ground on Arsenal last week, cutting the Gunners’ lead at the top of the Premier League to six points.
City, who have a game in hand, beat lowly Southampton last time out and on Saturday face another relegation battler in the form of Leicester City, who will be under the stewardship of Dean Smith for the first time.
Arsenal, meanwhile, take on West Ham in a London Derby. The Hammers are also fighting at the wrong end of the table, though two wins from their last three league matches has given David Moyes’ team some confidence.
Nottingham Forest are another team scrapping for survival, and Steve Cooper will be looking to make home advantage count against Manchester United.
Likewise, Leeds United will hope the Elland Road faithful help propel them to victory against Liverpool, who they beat at Anfield earlier in the campaign.
With the help of Opta data, here are some key predictions ahead of another fascinating weekend of Premier League action.
Manchester City v Leicester City
City have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League games against Leicester City (L2), winning the last four in a row since a 5-2 home defeat in September 2020.
Having been beaten in seven of their last eight Premier League games (D1), Leicester have now lost 19 league matches overall this term. Not since 2001-02 (20) have the Foxes lost 20+ league matches in one season, and should they lose against City, it will be the joint-second earliest they have ever hit 20 defeats in a Football League campaign.
Leicester midfielder James Maddison has scored in this exact fixture in each of the last two campaigns; only two visiting players have scored a Premier League goal at Etihad Stadium in three consecutive seasons – Collins John (2004-05 to 2006-07) and Tim Cahill (2008-09 to 2010-11).
Best bet – Erling Haaland to score: Is there any way to stop Haaland? Many teams have tried, and nearly all have failed. The Norway international is already on 30 league goals this season, averaging a strike every 73 minutes with a shot conversion rate of 33.3 per cent. Given Leicester’s defensive frailties, the 22-year-old will be licking his lips.
Long shot – Leicester to keep a clean sheet: The Foxes have not prevented the opposition from scoring in a league match since November, when they beat West Ham 2-0. If they are to get out of trouble, then interim boss Smith has to find a way to tighten things up at the back.
Opta prediction: Leicester won four of their first five Premier League visits to Man City (L1) but have since lost five of their last six games at the Etihad Stadium (W1). It is no surprise, then, that Opta’s supercomputer has City as huge favourites (75.1 per cent), while Leicester are given only an 8.5 per cent chance of pulling off a win.
West Ham v Arsenal
Arsenal have won 11 Premier League away games this season, only winning more on the road in 2001-02 (14) and 2004-05 (12). The Gunners have the most wins (11), most points (35), most goals scored (30) and fewest goals conceded (11) of any team away from home in the Premier League this term.
They have also won eight Premier League games against West Ham after conceding the first goal, including a 3-1 victory in the reverse fixture in December. It is both the most wins Arsenal have against an opponent when conceding first, and the most defeats West Ham have against a side when opening the scoring in the competition.
Arsenal have scored 72 goals from an xG of 60.1 in the Premier League this season, with their difference of +11.9 bettered only by Manchester City (12.2). Meanwhile, West Ham have scored 27 goals from an xG of 38.4, with their difference of -11.4 the biggest negative difference this term.
Best bet – Arsenal to score first and avoid defeat: The Gunners are the only team yet to lose a Premier League game when scoring the first goal this season, winning 18 and drawing three. However, they did let a two-goal lead slip in their 2-2 draw at Liverpool last time out.
Long shot – West Ham to win: West Ham have won just two of their last 29 Premier League games against Arsenal (D5 L22), who have only lost three of their 26 Premier League visits to West Ham (W14 D9) and have won nine of their last 14 away games against the Hammers (D4 L1).
Opta prediction: Given West Ham’s woeful record against the Gunners, their chances of success are ranked at only 28.8 per cent by Opta, with the draw at 28.4 per cent. The likelihood of Arsenal winning is 42.8 per cent.
Nottingham Forest v Manchester United
This is Forest’s first home league game against United since February 1999, when they lost 8-1 with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer scoring four times as a substitute.
Forest are winless (D3 L6) and without a clean sheet in their last nine Premier League games. In fact, Forest are winless in all 23 league games in which they have conceded this season (D8 L15), with all six of their victories being to nil.
United have lost three of their last four away games in the Premier League (W1), having only lost three of their first 10 on the road this season (W5 D2). The Red Devils have conceded 29 away goals in 14 away league games this term; not since 1978-79 have they hit 30 goals conceded within their first 15 away matches of a league campaign.
Best bet – United to avoid defeat: United have won their last nine games against Forest in all competitions, beating them three times this season alone (once in the league, twice in the EFL Cup). The Red Devils have beaten a side four times in a season twice before, doing so against Sheffield Wednesday in 1993-94 and Chelsea in 2010-11.
Long shot – Jesse Lingard to score: Lingard has yet to score for Forest in the league. He could become the third former United player to score his first Premier League goal for a side against the Red Devils, after Keith Gillespie at Sheffield United in 2006-07, and Dan James for Fulham this season.
Opta prediction: United have won their last six Premier League games against Nottingham Forest, scoring at least three goals on each occasion, and they are the favourites for Sunday’s game, with Opta suggesting they have a 52.6 per cent likelihood of taking three points. Forest are given a 20.6 per cent chance. The draw is ranked at 26.8 per cent.
Leeds United v Liverpool
Leeds slumped to a 5-1 defeat to Crystal Palace in their last home game, and sit just two points above the bottom three. Depending on results elsewhere, the Whites could be in the relegation zone by the time Monday’s game comes around. They are looking for only their second Premier League double over Liverpool, previously achieving that feat in the 2000-01 campaign.
Liverpool have not lost any of their last five league visits to Elland Road against Leeds (W3 D2) since losing 4-3 in November 2000, with Mark Viduka scoring all four for the hosts that day.
The Reds are averaging 0.87 points per game away from home in the Premier League this season (13 points in 15 away games), their lowest in a campaign since 1992-93 (0.76 – 16 points in 21 games).
Best bet – Mohamed Salah to be involved in a goal: Salah has seven goals in five Premier League appearances against Leeds for Liverpool, scoring in their 3-0 win at Elland Road last season. No Reds player has more Premier League goals against Leeds than Salah (Robbie Fowler also seven), while only Gordon Hodgson has more in their league history (nine).
Long shot – Under 1.5 goals: Leeds have shipped 10 goals in their three Premier League games in April (W1 L2), more than any other team so far this month. Liverpool, who are winless in their last five games in all competitions (D2 L3), have netted 15 times in their last five top-flight meetings with the Whites.
Opta prediction: Despite their dismal form on the road, Liverpool are made big favourites by Opta (61.4 per cent). A Leeds win is ranked at 15.8 per cent, with a draw forecast at 22.8 per cent.
