MY ACCOUNT
– Arsenal are winless in three, their worst run since April 2022
– Manchester City have lost three successive away games
– Recommended bet: Draw
Arsenal’s stall could hardly have come at a worse time, with Mikel Arteta’s men struggling for form as they host a match that could go a long way towards deciding the destination of the Premier League trophy.
Back-to-back victories over Tottenham and Manchester United in January felt like the moment the Gunners truly laid down the gauntlet, with their excellent performances seemingly a roaring confirmation of their title ambitions.
But three successive matches without a win since then have punctured the rapidly rising optimism.
And while a costly VAR decision stole the limelight in Saturday’s draw with Brentford, the Gunners’ uninspired performance in both that match and in defeat to Everton seven days earlier was of greater concern.
City have had problems on and off the pitch in 2022-23 but their performance in a 3-1 defeat of Aston Villa last time out gave the impression that the siege mentality adopted by manager Pep Guardiola may have galvanised his team and sparked a return to form.
The master beat his apprentice when knocking Arteta’s Arsenal out of the FA Cup last month but another victory for Pep over his protégé at the Emirates on Wednesday night would be an altogether more significant result.
Team news
Arsenal striker Gabriel Jesus remains around three weeks away from returning after knee surgery but midfielder Mohamed Elneny could miss the rest of the season after his own knee operation.
Attackers Emile Smith Rowe and Reiss Nelson are both on the road to recovery from thigh injuries but are unlikely to feature on Wednesday night.
Manchester City’s only confirmed absentee is centre-back John Stones, who is not expected back from a hamstring injury until early March.
Erling Haaland was substituted at half-time against Aston Villa on Sunday with a knock and was a doubt, but the striker trained on Monday and is expected to feature.
The stats
While few men will know more about Guardiola than his former assistant, Arteta has struggled to put that knowledge to use against his mentor.
Arteta has lost all five Premier League meetings with the Citizens since becoming Arsenal manager and has also lost two of their three cup clashes — although victory over City in the 2020 FA Cup semi-final was arguably one of the most important results of Arteta’s early coaching career.
That FA Cup semi-final success was the only occasion in the last 14 meetings that Arsenal have avoided defeat against Manchester City, who are unbeaten in their last eight trips to the Emirates Stadium and have won the last seven.
Arsenal arrive on the back of three successive matches without a victory, losing to Manchester City in the FA Cup, suffering defeat at Everton and drawing at home to Brentford — their longest winless run since April 2022.
However, Manchester City are in even worse form on the road, losing each of their last three away games — 1-0 at Tottenham, 2-1 to Manchester United and 2-0 at Southampton in the Carabao Cup.
Indeed, Guardiola’s men have won only one of six away trips to teams in the top 12 this season, also losing to Liverpool and drawing at Newcastle and Aston Villa.
Prediction
It feels like there has been a shift in momentum in the title race over the past fortnight but Arsenal remain in the driving seat with a three-point lead and game in hand over second-placed Manchester City.
In an ideal world, Arteta would have his team firing on all cylinders as they went into a potential title decider.
But the Emirates Stadium remains a tough place to visit given the Gunners have lost only once in 14 home games this season — a Carabao Cup defeat to Brighton with a much-changed team.
And, for all Manchester City’s quality, they have not impressed enough on the road this term to demand support at short prices — Guardiola’s men have lost away at both Manchester United and Tottenham in recent weeks and both are weaker opponents than Arsenal.
Given the high stakes and slightly shaky form of both teams a cagey, cautious encounter seems likely, making under 2.5 goals a solid addition to Bet Builder selections.
And a game that both managers would dearly love to win but in which they would not be too disappointed with a point makes the draw look an attractive price in the outright market.
