MY ACCOUNT
– Aston Villa have conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last five Villa Park outings
– Arsenal have the best away record in the top flight by a distance, taking 25 points from 11 trips
– Recommended bet: Arsenal to win and over 1.5 goals
Arsenal’s title challenge has suffered a bruising couple of weeks, but Mikel Arteta’s men now go into a kinder run of fixtures with which to reignite their Premier League charge.
Defeat to Manchester City on Wednesday night made it three league games without a win, and while Gunners supporters have had moments of grievance in all three matches, the biggest concern will be that each of City, Brentford and Everton deserved their results against Arsenal.
A trip to Villa Park to face former Arsenal manager Unai Emery needs to be the turning point for Arteta if the Gunners’ season is not going to be completely derailed within the space of a fortnight, and there are reasons to believe Aston Villa are the ideal opponents against which to regroup.
But while Aston Villa were torn apart by Manchester City themselves last weekend, Emery will be demanding a reaction after that first-half capitulation, and there is no doubt would like to remind his former employers of his managerial capabilities.
Team news
Aston Villa may again be without their two first-choice defenders after Tyrone Mings joined Diego Carlos on the sidelines for their match against Manchester City last weekend. Carlos is now only a couple of weeks away from returning from the Achilles injury that has ruled him out for almost all of the 2022-23 campaign, but Mings will have to be assessed ahead of the meeting with Arsenal.
Winger Bertrand Traore could return to the squad after being recalled from his loan spell at Istanbul Basaksehir and recovering from a knee injury to train with the first team. He will also face a late fitness test.
Arsenal head to the midlands without striker Gabriel Jesus and midfielder Mohamed Elneny, who are both expected to return in March after respective knee injuries.
Attacking midfielder Emile Smith Rowe remains a doubt after a setback in his recovery from a thigh injury last month, and defensive midfielder Thomas Partey will have to be assessed after missing Wednesday’s game against Manchester City.
The stats
Arsenal’s current four-match winless run is their longest sequence of games without a victory since January 2022, but perhaps surprisingly, it is their home form that has suffered most of late. Arteta’s men have won only two of their last six matches at the Emirates Stadium.
The Gunners have also lost their last two away games, both 1-0, at Manchester City in the FA Cup and Everton in the league, but prior to that had won five successive road trips, including a 2-0 win at Tottenham and 1-0 victory over Chelsea.
Arteta’s men have also won their last three meetings with Aston Villa, including an August victory in north London in which they were far more convincing than the 2-1 scoreline suggested.
They now visit a Villa side whose home form has been a concern since the World Cup break.
Emery’s men have lost three of five Villa Park outings since then, including a FA Cup loss to League Two Stevenage, a deserved 3-1 defeat to Liverpool and a 4-2 hammering by Leicester. Their only win in that run was a 2-1 defeat of Leeds United in which the visitors will justifiably feel they were unfortunate.
Prediction
Both teams come into this match with concerns over their form, and late team news could be crucial. The possible return of Partey would galvanise an Arsenal team who played well in the first half against Manchester City, while the absence of Mings could be catastrophic for a shaky Villa defence.
Even with Mings in harness, Villa have been worryingly porous at Villa Park lately. In Villa’s last four Premier League home games, each of Liverpool, Leeds and Leicester have created expected goals ratings of 2.4 or greater, and even the excellent Emiliano Martinez in goal has often failed to keep scorelines respectable.
That frailty was again on show last weekend when Manchester City scored three first-half goals against Villa before taking their foot off the gas, so adding over 1.5 Arsenal goals looks a safe way to bolster Bet Builder selections.
However, Arteta’s men can also be trusted to get back to winning ways at Villa Park. The Gunners have not become a poor team in the space of a couple of weeks and cannot afford to settle for a point as they battle with City for top spot.
Back Arsenal to win and over 1.5 goals, available at 11/8 with LiveScore Bet.
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