MY ACCOUNT
Ahead of Friday’s home clash with Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich’s run of four matches without victory has sparked talk of crisis for the Bavarians.
Bayern’s return of just 12 points from their opening seven matches does constitute their worst start in the Bundesliga since 2010-11, but the reality is that Julian Nagelsman’s team is a long way from disaster.
In the Champions League, victories over Barcelona and away at Inter Milan, with back-to-back meetings with Viktoria Plzen to come, means they already look nailed-on to qualify for the knockout stages.
Domestically, they have already won the German Supercup and are making serene progress in the DFB-Pokal. And while a slow start means Bayern currently sit fifth in the Bundesliga, none of their main rivals have started well enough to fully capitalise.
Nagelsmann’s side still have 27 matches to claw back the five points between them and surprise early leaders Union Berlin, while everyone else is within three points of the perennial champions.
Moreover, the underlying stats suggest Bayern’s woes are merely a blip as they have dominated each of the four games they failed to win and still boast the best goal difference in the division — a whopping +13.
If Bayern supporters really needed to put their problems in context, they need look no further than Friday’s opponents, Bayer Leverkusen, who finished third last season but are now struggling on all fronts.
Team news
Bayern will be without centre-back Lucas Hernandez for another couple of weeks as he recovers from a groin problem, while right-sided midfielder Bouna Sarr is out until 2023 with a knee injury.
Kingsley Coman is back in training following a hamstring injury but is unlikely to return to the squad until next weekend.
Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and Leon Goretzka were both sent home from international duty with positive Covid tests but have since returned to training and should be available.
Leverkusen manager Gerardo Seoane has five players missing.
Midfielder Exequiel Palacios and back-up goalkeeper Andrey Lunev each have another week or so before returning from their respective hamstring and thigh injuries, while Amine Adli will not be back until late October having broken his collarbone.
Winger Karim Bellarabi (knee) and 19-year-old starlet Florian Wirtz (cruciate ligament) face another month or so out.
The stats
Despite Bayern’s issues, things are far worse for Leverkusen. Die Werkself have lost four and won only one of seven Bundesliga matches this term and suffered the embarrassment of getting knocked out of the DFB-Pokal by third-tier Elversberg.
They also face an uphill struggle in the Champions League after losing their opening Group B match to Club Brugge.
There is little suggestion that Bayer have been unlucky, either, with the expected goals ratings in their Bundesliga matches broadly matching their results, the exception being a 2-1 defeat to Augsburg in which they won the xG count 2.6-0.5.
Augsburg also beat 32-time champions Bayern 1-0 before the international break, but it was a barely-deserved win as they nicked victory against Nagelsmann’s side despite Bayern bossing 76% possession and taking 19 shots but failing to score for the first time in 87 Bundesliga outings.
Failing to get just reward for their dominance has been a trend of late for Bayern, who carved out 19 shooting opportunities in the 2-2 draw with Stuttgart, rained in 21 efforts in the 1-1 draw at Union Berlin and pummelled Borussia Moenchengladbach with a ridiculous 33 shots but somehow only drew 1-1.
Prediction
While Bayern and Bayer will both be justifiably frustrated with how their seasons are going, there is a clear difference between the trajectories of the two clubs.
Bayern’s brief blip seems merely an anomaly that could be solved simply by their misfiring frontmen getting away from the club and clearing their heads during the international break.
A few bumps could be expected as Bayern switched from having Robert Lewandowski as a target man to playing with a more fluid frontline and the fact they continue to create plenty of goalscoring opportunities suggests there is no serious issue.
The likes of Sadio Mane, Leroy Sane, Jamal Musiala, Serge Gnabry and Thomas Muller are too good to keep missing chances and it will be only a matter of time until Bayern return to their free-scoring ways.
Leverkusen supporters have genuine reason for concern, however, as their results owe less to freakish fortune and more to Seoane’s men failing to reach last season’s levels.
The loss to injury of Wirtz has hit them particularly hard, with the attacking midfield central to much of Bayer’s forward play, and confidence has taken a hit as results have dipped.
If Bayern score early against the struggling visitors, the floodgates could finally reopen for Nagelsmann’s men.
