MY ACCOUNT
– Borussia Dortmund have won all six matches since returning from their winter break
– Chelsea have failed to win any of their last eight away trips
– Recommended bet: Borussia Dortmund to win
Chelsea are much changed since the Champions League group stage and the Blues’ new signings must gel quickly if they are to overcome a dangerous Borussia Dortmund and progress through the knockout rounds.
Manager Graham Potter will have seen promising signs in a recent four-match unbeaten run, most notably some sparkling moments of quality from new arrivals Joao Felix, Mykhailo Mudryk and Enzo Fernandez.
However, four of Potter’s front six that faced West Ham last weekend only arrived in January and however high the quality of the individuals it is no surprise that the team often looks a collection of strangers — the class is evident but the cohesion is not.
That will be a problem against an opponent as polished and adept as Dortmund, who sit just three points off leaders Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga and head into this round of 16 first-leg tie on the back of six successive victories.
A seventh at the Westfalenstadion on Wednesday night would give a misfiring Chelsea attack a mountain to climb in the second leg at Stamford Bridge.
Team news
Dortmund dropped Abdoulaye Kamara from the Champions League squad after he sustained a medial collateral ligament injury in October.
Midfielder Marius Wolf is out with a shoulder injury and striker Youssoufa Moukoko looks set for a spell on the sidelines after picking up an ankle injury at the weekend — big-money January signing Sebastien Haller is likely to replace him.
Right-back Mateu Morey is close to a return but lacks match fitness and Thomas Meunier is likely to be restricted to a place on the bench after returning from injury to play the final few minutes of Dortmund’s victory at Werder Bremen last weekend.
Chelsea’s injury crisis is starting to ease, but striker Armando Broja, winger Christian Pulisic, midfielder N’Golo Kante and goalkeeper Edouard Mendy all remain unavailable.
However, midfielders Mateo Kovacic and Denis Zakaria are both rated 50/50 to make the squad and winger Raheem Sterling and centre-back Wesley Fofana both have an outside chance of returning.
Such were Chelsea’s number of January signings that Potter had to leave new arrivals Benoit Badiashile, Noni Madueke, David Datro Fofana and Andrey Santos out of the Champions League squad, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was dropped.
Felix, Fernandez and Mudryk have been added.
The stats
Dortmund have returned from their World Cup and winter break in excellent form, compiling a perfect record of six wins from six and scoring 17 goals along the way, netting at least twice on each occasion.
Edin Terzic’s hosts have lost just once at the Westfalenstadion all season, holding in-form giants Bayern Munich and Manchester City to draws in the Bundesliga and Champions League respectively and winning eight of 12 matches in front of their own fans.
Chelsea, on the other hand, have won only two of their last 12 matches in all competitions and have not been victorious in any of their last eight away games, last winning on the road away at RB Salzburg in the Champions League.
That eight-match winless run takes in draws at Liverpool, Nottingham Forest and West Ham, two defeats to Manchester City — 4-0 and 2-0 — and losses to Newcastle, Fulham and a 4-1 thumping at Brighton.
Prediction
While the quality of Chelsea’s squad gives them the feel of a team that could click at any moment and look imperious, until they do so it is hard to trust a Blues side who have beaten only Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Dinamo Zagreb — all on home soil — since October.
For now, they have to be opposed — particularly given their current eight-match winless run on the road in which they have blanked four times and failed to score more than one goal on any occasion.
That makes under 1.5 Chelsea goals a safe-looking addition to Bet Builders, while a bolder but reasonable call would be to make it under 0.5 Chelsea goals.
However, the best bet is to back a home victory.
Terzic’s men are in form and playing with confidence against a Chelsea side who will want a draw but would arguably accept a narrow defeat that they could try to overturn back in west London.
Back Borussia Dortmund to win, available at 29/20 with LiveScore Bet.
