MY ACCOUNT
– Brentford have their eyes set on Europe thanks to an excellent home record
– Leicester have a dreadful record against top-half teams, losing 12 of 15 games
– Recommended bet: Brentford to win and over 1.5 goals
After predicting Brentford would chalk up only their third home win of the Premier League season on Wednesday, Dan Sait takes a look at their return to the Gtech Community Stadium against Leicester this weekend.
Brentford enjoyed a long-overdue away win at Southampton in midweek and manager Thomas Frank will be eager to follow up with victory over Leicester ahead of a tough run of fixtures after the international break.
A win on Saturday would put the Bees up into sixth position in the Premier League, leaving those around them under pressure to win games in hand to push Brentford back out of the European places.
And Frank’s men are hosting Leicester at the ideal time, with the Foxes in increasing relegation peril after taking just seven points from 11 games since the World Cup.
Team news
Brentford midfielder Vitaly Janelt had to come off against Southampton with a knee injury and he joins forward Keane Lewis-Potter and reserve goalkeeper Thomas Strakosha on the sidelines.
Right-back Mads Roerslev missed the trip to Southampton with a minor hamstring issue and is rated only 50/50 to return this weekend.
Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers is without several key men, with left-backs James Justin, Victor Kristiansen and Ryan Bertrand all out injured and centre-back Wout Faes suspended after picking up two yellow cards against Chelsea last weekend.
Fellow centre-back Jannik Vestergaard has been banished from the first team after falling out with Rodgers and key midfielder Youri Tielemans is out until mid-April with an ankle injury.
The stats
Brentford have lost only one of their last 14 league matches and have suffered defeat to only leaders Arsenal at the Gtech Community Stadium this season.
Their last five home games have seen the Bees beat Liverpool 3-1, Bournemouth 2-0, Southampton 3-0 and Fulham 3-2 — as well as drawing 1-1 with Crystal Palace — and only four Premier League teams have netted more home goals this term.
Goals again look likely as Leicester have conceded more away goals than every other Premier League rival bar Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, while only Manchester City and Arsenal’s matches have seen more goals per game than the Foxes’ 3.19.
Worryingly for Rodgers ahead of this trip, Leicester’s record against top-half opponents is particularly poor, with his team winning only one of 15 matches against teams placed 10th or higher and losing 12, conceding two or more goals on 10 occasions.
That includes shipping at least twice in losing all six away trips to top-half hosts, conceding at an average of 3.67 goals per game in those matches.
Prediction
Leicester’s poor form, terrible record away at better opponents and absence of key defensive-minded players all point to a tough trip to the Gtech Community Stadium, where Frank has done an incredible job in turning Brentford into genuine European contenders.
While the Bees are no one-man team, Ivan Toney has been central to their attacking success, netting 16 Premier League goals to put him behind only Erling Haaland and Harry Kane in the goalscoring charts.
He was on target in August’s reverse fixture and would make a fine addition to Bet Builders as an anytime goalscorer.
Given the respective form of the two teams, the home win looks generously priced at even money but with Brentford scoring at will and Leicester unable to shut up shop it is worth bumping up that price by adding a goals element.
Back Brentford to win and over 1.5 goals, available at 31/20 with LiveScore Bet.
Win big with LiveScore 6!
Fancy winning up to £100,000? Simply predict six correct scores from the weekend action for your chance to win – with consolation prizes also on offer if you go close.
Play LiveScore 6 for free this weekend (18+, UK only) – click here for details on how to get involved.
