MY ACCOUNT
– Brighton have been unfortunate in recent weeks but remain in the European hunt
– West Ham have the joint-worst away record in the Premier League
– Recommended bet: Brighton to win to nil
Last weekend’s impressive 4-0 victory over Nottingham Forest was timely for West Ham, who were starting to look bereft of confidence as they dropped into the bottom three of the Premier League.
However, such is the tight nature of the bottom half of the table, Hammers boss David Moyes will be well aware that his side remain in serious relegation strife, with Saturday’s trip to Brighton set to be one of their toughest tests of the run-in.
The Seagulls have seen their European challenge hit by a run of just one win in four, but they would be justified in feeling harshly rewarded given the quality of their performances in recent weeks.
Roberto De Zerbi’s men had the better of all four meetings with Leicester, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Fulham yet somehow emerged with only five points and the Brighton manager will be determined to get what his side deserves against West Ham.
Team news
Brighton attacking midfielder Adam Lallana is likely to miss the rest of the season with a thigh injury but long-term absentee Jakub Moder could return next month from a long-term knee issue.
Seagulls defender Levi Colwill remains out for another week or two but midfielder Billy Gilmour, full-back Pervis Estupinan and winger Solly March each have a chance of returning from minor injuries.
West Ham goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski suffered a fractured cheekbone last weekend and will be out for several weeks, while right-back Vladimir Coufal was also injured against Nottingham Forest and is a major doubt with a heel problem.
Central defender Kurt Zouma has an outside chance of returning to the bench but attacker Maxwel Cornet looks set to miss out again with a calf injury. Striker Danny Ings is available after being ineligible for the FA Cup defeat to Manchester United.
The stats
Brighton’s last six league games have returned three wins — including a 3-0 victory over Liverpool — two draws and a defeat but the Seagulls could easily have won all six after outperforming their opponents by at least 0.8 expected goals in every one of those matches.
West Ham have also been slightly unfortunate in a run of 12 games that contains just two wins for Moyes’ men, but to a far lesser degree.
They deserved recent draws against Newcastle and Chelsea, and will be frustrated to have lost tight matches against Wolves, Brentford, Leicester and Manchester United. However, West Ham only outperformed their opponents by more than 0.2 xG in two of those 12 games and they won both — against Everton in January and Nottingham Forest last weekend.
Now they face a Brighton side that they have never beaten in the Premier League, losing five and drawing six of 11 meetings since the Seagulls’ promotion in 2017.
Prediction
Despite a disappointing run of results, Brighton should still be feeling confident after a string of strong performances that simply have not returned the points they have deserved.
De Zerbi will be determined to get back to winning ways as his team chases down a top-seven finish and there could be fewer better sides to do that against than a West Ham outfit who see Brighton as their bogey team.
The Hammers may feel slightly hard done by to have lost the number of matches that they have in 2022-23 but they have rarely looked deserving of victories, bar when playing at home against weaker opponents.
An away record of just one win and three draws from 12 matches is the joint-worst in the Premier League and given both their lack of goals on the road — just seven in 12 games — and Brighton’s recent wastefulness, adding under 2.5 goals to Bet Builders looks a decent approach.
But finding a way to back the Seagulls looks the best bet.
If 4/5 for Brighton in the 1X2 market is too short, then back De Zerbi’s men to win to nil against a Hammers side who have blanked in six of their 12 Premier League away games this term.
Back Brighton to win to nil, available at 17/10 with LiveScore Bet.
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