MY ACCOUNT
– Six of Coventry’s seven wins against top-half teams were by a 1-0 scoreline
– Only Championship winners Burnley conceded fewer regular-season goals than Luton’s 39
– Recommended bet: Draw at 2/1 with LiveScore Bet
Coventry take on Luton in the Championship play-off final on Saturday and the race for a place in the Premier League could go down to the wire.
Coventry and Luton meet at Wembley with promotion to the Premier League on the line and both teams’ campaigns have been built on excellent defensive records.
The Sky Blues showcased their strength in that department by shutting out Championship play-off favourites Middlesbrough over two legs to claim a 1-0 aggregate victory in the semi-finals.
Luton, beaten only once in their last 20 games of the regular season on their way to a third-placed finish, fought back from a 2-1 first-leg defeat at Sunderland to clinch their place at Wembley and they could be set for an epic final against the Sky Blues.
Team news
Gustavo Hamer, who scored Coventry’s semi-final winner at Middlesbrough, is managing a knee problem but should be fit to start. Kasey Palmer is back in training but hasn’t featured since February and Callum O’Hare, Fabio Tavares and Tyler Walker are set to miss out.
Luton boss Rob Edwards could name the same team who started the semi-final second leg against Sunderland.
Striker Cauley Woodrow is the Hatters’ only injury doubt.
The stats
Six of Coventry’s seven wins against top-half teams were by a 1-0 scoreline.
City’s regular-season away matches averaged just 2.17 goals per game.
The Sky Blues failed to win any of their nine away fixtures against top-ten sides.
Only Championship winners Burnley conceded fewer regular-season goals than Luton’s 39.
No team in the Championship drew more games than the Hatters’ 17 this term.
Luton lost just one of their last 20 regular-season games, a 1-0 home defeat to champions Burnley.
Prediction
Both regular-season meetings between Coventry and Luton finished in draws and, with the stakes so high in the play-off final, it would be no surprise if the scores were level after 90 minutes again.
Luton had the second-best defensive record in the division while Coventry kept clean sheets in both legs of their semi-final tie against a talented Boro side so a tense, low-scoring contest is on the cards at Wembley.
Both clubs drew four of their last seven fixtures in the regular season and, although Luton are worthy favourites after finishing ten points clear of the Sky Blues, Mark Robins’ men will have taken great confidence from their semi-final victory.
Only two of the last ten Championship play-off finals have featured over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes – 2-1 wins for Aston Villa against Derby in 2019 and Fulham against Brentford the following season – and extra-time may be required to separate Saturday’s evenly-matched promotion rivals.
Back the draw, available at 2/1 with LiveScore Bet.
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