MY ACCOUNT
Two teams in the NBA are on league-leading four-game winning streaks heading into Thursday’s schedule. The pair face one another at American Airlines Center.
The Phoenix Suns have pulled clear of the Golden State Warriors at the top of the West, their league-best record improving to 34-9 while Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Co are .500 across their past 10 games.
But this latest Suns run has been matched by the Dallas Mavericks, who are again recovering from a slow start.
The Mavs have won 10 of their past 11 outings after a 16-18 start. In 2020-21, Dallas recovered from an early 8-13 record to take the fifth seed – the same position they again occupy.
Dallas’ problems prior to these recoveries have undoubtedly been linked to Luka Doncic, their sensational superstar who has tended to end seasons in more impressive fashion than he begins them.
Doncic has been the preseason MVP favourite in consecutive years but each time showed up looking a little out of shape.
The Slovenian is not denying that, saying in December: “I had a long summer. I had the Olympics, took three weeks off and I relaxed a little bit. Maybe too much. I’ve just got to get back on track.”
But there are signs now that Doncic is delivering as promised. Having returned from an ankle injury to feature in nine of the Mavs’ past 10 games, he had a year-high 41 points last time out against the Toronto Raptors. Three of his five triple-doubles for the year have come in this period, too.
Will this improvement continue against Phoenix, though?
The Suns are 5-0 against Dallas across the past two seasons, albeit all five meetings (three last year, two this year) have come during those tricky starts for the Mavs.
Since themselves returning to contention, Phoenix have not yet played a Mavs team in their groove.
PIVOTAL PERFORMERS
Dallas Mavericks – Kristaps Porzingis
The Suns have a wealth of talent, while Dallas too often have only had Doncic. The need for a second man to step up and help the two-time All-NBA First Team selection is evident. Porzingis is the obvious candidate.
While the Mavs struggled while Doncic was out, Porzingis has shown that he can play the role of leading man when required.
His usage rate of 28.6 per cent this year is the highest it has been since he moved to Dallas – explained by Doncic’s lay-off – and the knock-on effect is an increased offensive output when the simple option of passing the ball to his team-mate is removed.
Porzingis has scored 22.8 points per game Doncic has missed this season, versus 18.6 when he has played. Even including those the pair have played together, Porzingis’ offense improves from 29.8 points per 100 possessions with Doncic to 35.4 without.
Doncic’s high usage (36.3 per cent, the highest in the NBA among those involved in 250 or more possessions) reduces Porzingis’ role significantly at times, but Dallas need both to fire against a team like the Suns.
Phoenix Suns – Chris Paul
Nominally a point guard, Doncic is more of a point forward, hogging most of the shots himself. In truth, there are few genuine point guards remaining in the NBA. Paul is one of them.
Even at 36, Paul has started all 43 games – ranking 21st in the league for minutes (1,383) – and leads the NBA in assists (429), well clear of second-placed James Harden (390). Not since 2015-16 has he averaged this rate of 10.0 assists per game.
Given the frequency with which Paul is creating shots for team-mates, his assist-to-turnover ratio is even more impressive, ranking second with 4.38 dimes per turnover.
With Curry and the Warriors slightly on the wane, Paul could soon be in serious consideration for the MVP award. A big performance in a big game such as this one would aid his cause.
KEY BATTLE – Doncic to deliver in Ayton’s absence?
The Suns will be without center Deandre Ayton, the player they selected first overall in 2018 before Doncic went two picks later.
Ayton, who has an ankle injury, was a little slower than Doncic to truly establish himself but has never struggled against the Mavs, enjoying a 10-1 record in such matchups.
Doncic missed Phoenix’s first two wins against Dallas this season and has only three victories in the 11 games he has played versus the Suns.
With Ayton’s role in Phoenix’s recent success starting to alter the narrative around the 2018 draft, in which Doncic was quickly considered the most talented young player, the Dallas man may see this as an opportunity to send a message.
HEAD TO HEAD
This had been a closely fought rivalry until the Suns’ dominance in the Ayton-Doncic years. Now, Phoenix boast a 93-74 record against the Mavs and will hope to improve that further on the road.
Dallas are a more impressive 47-36 in home games against the Suns.
