MY ACCOUNT
– Fulham have a superb record against teams outside the top five, winning nine of 15 such games
– Nottingham Forest’s upturn in results at home is not matched by their wobbly away form
– Recommended bet: Fulham to win
Given the size and complexity of the task handed to him at the start of 2022-23, Nottingham Forest manager Steve Cooper would deserve to be among the frontrunners for manager of the season if he keeps the club in the Premier League.
To take a club from bottom of the Championship to promotion in 2021-22 was incredible enough, but for Cooper to then have to completely rebuild the team the following summer and still keep Forest up would be nothing short of miraculous.
But the manager of the season accolade looks set to be keenly contested and another of those deserving of a mention is Fulham boss Marco Silva, who has comfortably allayed fears of a relegation scrap following promotion and is instead pushing strongly for a finish in the European places.
A recent four-point haul against neighbours Chelsea further highlight the impressive job Silva is doing at Craven Cottage and victory this weekend could take his team as high as sixth in the Premier League after 22 games.
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest (Saturday, 3pm)
Team news
Fulham have only Neeskens Kebano unavailable, with the DR Congo winger likely to miss the rest of the season with a ruptured Achilles.
January arrivals Cedric Soares and Sasa Lukic both missed out on the squad against Chelsea last week but could be in line for their debuts on Saturday.
Forest remain without first-choice goalkeeper Dean Henderson, who is recovering from a thigh tear and will be out until March – along with striker Taiwo Awoniyi and midfielder Cheikhou Kouyate.
Centre-back Moussa Niakhate is also hoping to return next month but left-back Omar Richards is only a little way off returning from a fractured leg.
Defender Giulian Biancone is out for the season with an ACL injury and Ryan Yates misses out through illness, but new signing Jonjo Shelvey could make his debut as he returns to fitness following a calf injury.
The stats
Forest have risen from bottom of the table to 13th in their last seven Premier League games, winning four of those matches and losing only one – away at Manchester United.
However, while Cooper’s men are improving at an impressive rate, there remains a clear difference between their home form and away form.
At the City Ground, Forest have beaten Liverpool and held Chelsea in compiling the joint-eighth best home record in the top flight. But on the road, only Bournemouth have taken fewer than Forest’s six points from 10 games.
The contrast between Fulham’s home and away form is far less noticeable but there is a marked difference between their record against the top five and against the rest.
Silva’s men have yet to take a single point from seven meetings with the top five but have lost just one of their other 15 games, winning nine.
Silva’s men also enjoy a strong recent record against Forest, winning three of the last four meetings – including inflicting one of only three home defeats on Cooper’s men this season in September’s 3-2 victory at the City Ground.
Prediction
While Cooper’s team have been a revelation on home soil since mid-October, their away record in that time is relatively modest.
An extremely fortunate draw at Brighton was followed by heavy defeats to Arsenal – 5-0 – and Manchester United – 3-0 – a win at Southampton and a draw at ailing Bournemouth.
That victory at rock-bottom Southampton remains Forest’s only away win this season and Cooper’s men have failed to even score in any of their seven away trips to teams outside the bottom three.
Given Fulham’s impressive form against teams outside the top five, that makes backing under 0.5 Forest goals an appealing option for Bet Builder selections.
However, the best bet is to simply back Silva’s hosts at only a shade of odds-on, as the Cottagers look to make it 10 wins in 16 matches against teams outside the top five.
