MY ACCOUNT
Just when it looked like struggling Leicester might be picking themselves up after a dreadful start to 2022-23, Brendan Rodgers’ men went and got floored again — this time by a late one-two at Bournemouth.
On the face of it, a 2-1 defeat away at a Cherries side unbeaten in five might not seem the worst result, but context paints that performance in a less generous light.
Leicester seemed to be improving as they went into last weekend’s trip to the Vitality Stadium, finally picking up their first win of the season and playing well in patches prior to that against Tottenham.
And in Bournemouth they had opponents ripe to offer back-to-back wins — the Cherries might have been unbeaten in four, but the underlying numbers in each of those games suggested they were set for a fall.
Sure enough, it started promisingly as Leicester turned up on the south coast and impressed en route to a 1-0 half-time lead. But a potential season-defining success quickly turned into a horror show, as Rodgers’ defence sat off and his goalkeeper flapped, and the Foxes grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory.
Now they face a Crystal Palace side whose lowly league position might mark them out as another potentially weak opponent.
However, a glance at the Eagles’ fixture list suggests they could be about to enjoy a renaissance of their own.
Team news
Leicester were without defensive midfielders Wilfred Ndidi and Nampalys Mendy last weekend but will hope to have the latter back given Mendy had only a minor knock.
Full-backs Ricardo Pereira and Ryan Bertrand are both long-term absentees, with Pereira out until 2023 and no timeframe currently being put on Bertrand’s return.
Right-back Timothy Castagne had to go off against Bournemouth after receiving a blow to the eye, but the Belgian is expected to return to action this weekend.
Crystal Palace manager Patrick Vieira looks set to be without five of his first-team squad. Goalkeeper Jack Butland, vice-captain James McArthur and defender Nathan Ferguson have all yet to play a minute this season and all three are again set to miss out.
Right-back Nathaniel Clyne is expected to be out for few more weeks after picking up an ankle injury against Chelsea a fortnight ago, while USA international defender Chris Richards is again absent after picking up a thigh injury during the international break.
The stats
Leicester’s last opponents, Bournemouth, had not managed to create over 0.9 expected goals in any of their previous eight league game this season, averaging 0.48 xG per game.
Against the Foxes, however, they doubled that average to produce their highest xG rating of the season — 1.1.
But while Leicester have been poor at limiting their opponents’ shooting opportunities, they have been far from the worst culprits in the Premier League — six other teams have conceded more expected goals per game than Leicester’s 1.46.
Arguably the biggest problem for Rodgers is his goalkeeper, Danny Ward, who took over from the Kasper Schmeichel in the summer and has conceded 24 times from just 13.1 expected goals against him.
Ward is the only goalkeeper in the Premier League to have saved fewer than half of the shots he has faced this season, stopping just 46.5% of them.
The next-worst save percentage in the top flight is owned by Gavin Bazunu of Southampton, but even he has saved almost 10% more the shots he has faced.
Prediction
Leicester missed a huge opportunity to get their season back on track last weekend and now face an opponent who will be looking to spring their own surprise — and Palace look value at 2/1 to do just that.
A return of just nine points from eight matches is disappointing for Vieira’s men but the Eagles have faced an extremely tough set of fixtures and will feel unfortunate not to have got more out of some of those matches.
Palace could easily have got something against Arsenal on the opening day but missed two gilt-edged chances that would have levelled the game at 1-1 prior to handing the Gunners a late second via an own goal.
They were also unlucky against Chelsea a fortnight ago, when an inexplicable decision not to send off Thiago Silva allowed the Blues to recover from 1-0 down to snatch a 90th-minute winner.
In three away games, Palace have claimed impressive draws at Liverpool and Newcastle, and while they lost 4-2 at Manchester City, Vieira’s men gave the champions a real scare by taking a 2-0 lead.
Their performances against teams expected to finish in the top seven have been better than results suggest and in just three meetings with opponents not expected to challenge for Europe, Palace have impressed, beating Leeds 2-1, Aston Villa 3-1 and earning a draw against in-form Brentford.
After a season of hard-luck stories, Vieira’s men have the quality to get their just deserts this weekend to deepen the gloom at the King Power Stadium.
