MY ACCOUNT
– Manchester City have scored two goals or more in 20 of their last 22 home games
– Arsenal have been red-hot in front of goal but could be significantly weakened for the FA Cup
– Recommended bet: Manchester City to win and both teams to score
FA Cup success may not be the top priority for either Manchester City or Arsenal, but this fourth-round fixture provides an intriguing insight ahead of more meaningful Premier League clashes to come.
Defeat for either club in this competition could be breezily dismissed as an irrelevance – even a blessing in disguise.
However, managers Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta will both privately hope to land a blow that can give them an edge as they kickstart the mind games for their upcoming top-flight encounters.
City come into the tie with home advantage and the greater depth of squad, but league leaders Arsenal undoubtedly have the momentum and the feelgood factor of a winning run.
Whatever the strength of the starting XIs sent out on Friday night, this FA Cup clash should be keenly contested between two clubs eager to gain a psychological advantage.
Manchester City vs Arsenal (Friday, 8pm)
Team news
City have a clean bill of health, but Guardiola made multiple changes to his team for the FA Cup third-round clash against Chelsea and is again likely to do so.
Arsenal striker Gabriel Jesus is out until March with a knee injury and fellow forward Reiss Nelson is also set to miss out with a thigh injury.
The stats
Arsenal are flying. Their only defeat in 11 games came in the Carabao Cup, when a second-string side lost 3-1 at home to Brighton.
The Gunners have won nine of the other 10 games in that run, drawing at home to Newcastle but beating Tottenham, Chelsea and Brighton away from home as well as defeating Manchester United in north London last weekend.
City’s recent form has been patchier, with Guardiola frustrated by his players’ lack of focus in cup and league defeats to Southampton and the Red Devils earlier this month.
City also slipped up in the Premier League home games either side of the international break. However, while they were below par in a 2-1 defeat to Brentford prior to the World Cup – with some key players arguably having half an eye on Qatar – they were hugely unlucky to draw against Everton in the first match back after the event in Qatar.
Those two slips aside, City have been imperious at the Etihad Stadium. Guardiola’s side have won the other 20 of their last 22 home matches, scoring at least twice on each occasion and netting an average of 3.75 goals per game in that sequence.
At home this season, City have recorded a 6-3 league defeat of Manchester United, 4-0 and 2-0 victories over Chelsea in the cup competitions, a 3-2 win against Liverpool in the Carabao Cup and a 4-2 league victory over Tottenham.
Prediction
This should be an enthralling encounter as City rarely fail to entertain on home soil, while Arsenal have propelled themselves to the top of the Premier League amid a flurry of goals.
Given the attacking potency on show, the relative lack of jeopardy and City’s record of conceding in 10 of 17 home games this term, it is hard to imagine this will be a tight and tense encounter – so adding over 3.5 goals to Bet Builder selections looks a sensible approach.
But the best bet lies in finding a way to back City at decent odds as home advantage and City’s greater strength in depth makes Guardiola’s men solid favourites.
While there is a noticeable drop-off in quality when Arteta fields his reserves – with the 3-1 home defeat to Brighton in the Carabao Cup a clear example – it is often hard to identify which of Guardiola’s options are weaker.
His second-string selections have already seen off Chelsea – twice – and Liverpool in the cup competitions and they look likely to outclass a weakened Gunners team.
Back Manchester City to win and both teams to score, available at 19/10 with LiveScore Bet.
