MY ACCOUNT
– Manchester City have won each of their last five home games
– Out-of-form Newcastle have lost on each of their last 13 visits to the Etihad Stadium
– Recommended bet: Manchester City to win and over 2.5 goals
What was shaping up to be a fantastic season for Newcastle is in danger of falling apart, with a run of just four wins in 12 games since New Year’s Eve seeing the Magpies dumped out of the FA Cup, losing a Carabao Cup final and slipping out of the Premier League top four.
Even worse for manager Eddie Howe is that three of those four victories now effectively count for nought given they came in an EFL Cup run that ended in Wembley heartbreak to Manchester United, with Newcastle having to now pick themselves up ahead of facing another Manchester giant.
Pep Guardiola’s hosts have not been firing on all cylinders this term but now enter a run of fixtures they must win if they are to maintain pressure on leaders Arsenal — or even fend off the challenge of third-placed Manchester United.
A run of five-successive away games has seen the Citizens suffer slight slips in both the league and in Europe but Guardiola will now be looking to make home advantage count during an Etihad-heavy run of fixtures that could prove decisive to City’s season.
Team news
Manchester City reserve goalkeeper Stefan Ortega had to come off at half-time in Tuesday’s FA Cup win at Bristol City and is expected to be unavailable this weekend.
Central defenders John Stones and Aymeric Laporte are both doubts due to a thigh injury and illness respectively, but Laporte is rated 50/50 to return this weekend.
Newcastle goalkeeper Nick Pope returns from the suspension that ruled him out of the Carabao Cup final and, while midfielder Bruno Guimaraes has completed a three-match Premier League ban, the Brazilian suffered a twisted ankle in the cup final and is an injury doubt.
Magpies defender Emil Krafth may not return this season after suffering an ACL injury in August.
The stats
Newcastle have lost just two Premier League games this season — both to Liverpool — but have beaten only Fulham in their last seven league fixtures despite facing three of the bottom five during that run.
Indeed, while the Magpies have been impressively resilient this term, with no other Premier League side close to matching their record of 15 goals conceded, their inability to convert one point into three has been costly — no top-flight team has drawn more games than Newcastle’s 11.
Some of those draws have been impressive — including 0-0s at Arsenal and Manchester United as well as a 3-3 in the home fixture with Manchester City — but Howe’s men have also failed to win five of seven meetings with teams in the bottom six.
While Manchester City’s recent record is patchy there are mitigating factors — all five of the matches in which Guardiola’s men have failed to win in 2023 have come away from home and they were unfortunate in each of the last three.
City should have comfortably seen off Nottingham Forest but missed a series of excellent chances, while they were slightly unlucky to lose at Tottenham and were the better team when drawing at RB Leipzig in the Champions League.
The Citizens have won each of their last five home games, including 4-0 and 1-0 defeats of Chelsea and Arsenal in the FA Cup and a 4-2 victory over Tottenham in the Premier League.
Prediction
The shine is starting to dull from what was looking a golden campaign for Newcastle and Howe faces a serious test in lifting his players after the heartbreak of last weekend’s EFL Cup defeat.
Another defeat this weekend would have to be put in context given the quality of opposition, but the Magpies are in danger of losing ground on the Champions League places having been comfortably within the top four positions solidly from mid-October to mid-February.
August’s 3-3 draw against Manchester City at St James’ Park maintained a record of entertaining league meetings between these two teams, with only one of the last 10 featuring under 2.5 goals and the last four seeing goal tallies of six, five, four and seven.
Despite Newcastle’s impressive defensive figures this term, that head-to-head record — and City’s ruthlessness in front of goal — makes the prospect of over 3.5 goals a decent addition to Bet Builders.
But Newcastle have lost each of their last 13 league trips to the Etihad Stadium so backing another high-scoring Manchester City victory looks the best bet.
Back Manchester City to win and over 2.5 goals, available at 21/20 with LiveScore Bet.
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