MY ACCOUNT
– Manchester United hold a 3-0 advantage over Nottingham Forest
– Erik ten Hag is likely to rotate with eight matches in 26 days in February
– Recommended bet: Under 2.5 goals
Last week’s trip to the City Ground looked a tricky test for Manchester United against an in-form Nottingham Forest, but they passed with flying colours and now look nailed on for a place in the Carabao Cup final.
While we are only halfway through this semi-final, a 3-0 home defeat looks all but impossible for Forest to recover from, given their unconvincing away form.
Steve Cooper’s men have been impressive when roared on by their home support, going unbeaten in eight matches at the City Ground before last week, but have remained vulnerable on the road all season.
Overcoming a three-goal deficit looks beyond his players and perhaps the limit of Forest’s ambitions in the second leg will be to keep things respectable, especially as they have twice lost 3-0 to United since Christmas.
Team news
Ten Hag has several concerns within his squad and, with United in a dominant position in this tie, he is unlikely to risk any players who are not fully fit.
Christian Eriksen picked up an ankle injury against Reading in the FA Cup over the weekend and is highly unlikely to feature, while striker Anthony Martial and full-back Diogo Dalot also look set to miss out with thigh injuries.
Jadon Sancho remains unavailable and attacking midfielder Donny van de Beek has been ruled out for the season with a knee injury.
Midfielder Scott McTominay and left-back Luke Shaw are also both significant doubts, albeit Shaw may return to the squad if he has recovered from his recent illness.
Nottingham Forest loanee Dean Henderson is ineligible against his parent club and the goalkeeper is recovering from a thigh tear anyway, while midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White is a significant doubt after picking up an ankle injury in the first leg.
Defender Giulian Biancone is out for the season with an ACL injury and neither striker Taiwo Awoniyi nor midfielder Cheikhou Kouyate are expected back until March.
Left-back Omar Richards and centre-back Moussa Niakhate are closing in on returns from long-term injuries but this match comes too soon for both.
The stats
While Nottingham Forest have edged away from the Premier League relegation places on the back of their vastly-improved home form, Cooper’s men remain unconvincing on the road.
A record of just two wins — one in the Carabao Cup against second-tier Blackburn — and six defeats in their last 10 away games suggests they will again struggle at Old Trafford, where they lost 3-0 in the league in late December.
Forest failed to score in six of those 10 away games and only scored more than once on one occasion — the 4-1 rout of Blackburn.
Manchester United have also been markedly better at home than away this season, beating only Moldovan side Sheriff Tiraspol by more than a single goal away from home this season until last week’s 3-0 win at the City Ground, which was their biggest away victory in any competition in 15 months.
At home, however, United have been dominant of late, winning each of their last 11 games at Old Trafford and scoring three or more goals in seven of those.
Prediction
While Manchester United’s free-scoring displays on home soil and back-to-back 3-0 defeats of Cooper’s side tempt a bet at another high-scoring victory, it might be best to go the other way given the situation of this tie.
There is almost no chance that Forest can stun the Red Devils on home soil to overturn the 3-0 first-leg deficit and, despite what both are likely to say publicly, both managers will know that.
Therefore it seems likely that both Ten Hag and Cooper will rest some of their key men ahead of another important Premier League weekend.
If wholesale changes are made in both camps, a second-string United side should still be strong enough to see off Forest’s reserves, but it could be a solid rather than spectacular home win on the night as they wrap up a routine qualification to the final.
Back under 2.5 goals, available at 21/20 with LiveScore Bet.
