MY ACCOUNT
– Newcastle have scored more second-half goals than their opponents in three of their last four home PL games
– Leeds have been outscored in the second half in five of their seven away league contests
– Recommended bet: Newcastle to win the second half
Newcastle will look to finish an incredible 2022 on a high when they welcome Leeds to St James’ Park on Saturday afternoon.
The Magpies, who began the year second-bottom of the Premier League, are virtually guaranteed to start 2023 no lower than third and could yet overhaul Manchester City again for second spot.
Eddie Howe’s side demonstrated how far they have come with a 3-0 home dismantling of Leicester on Boxing Day with star man Miguel Almiron contributing yet another goal.
Goals have not been a problem for Leeds, who have scored 12 in their last five top-flight contests, but they continue to be dogged by defensive issues that ensure Illan Meslier is always kept busy.
Solving those concerns in 2023 has to be Jesse Marsch’s priority if he is to avoid being embroiled in yet another nerve-jangling survival scrap.
Team news
Howe revealed Callum Wilson, who missed the victory over the Foxes because of illness, is closer to a return after training with the squad on Thursday.
Fellow striker Chris Wood could yet start against his former club after scoring his second goal in three Premier League appearances since the start of November.
Jonjo Shelvey and Emil Krafth are out, and Howe mentioned “a couple of other niggles within the squad”, but the team is likely to be largely unchanged from Boxing Day.
For Leeds, who have had two days fewer rest than Newcastle since their last match, changes must be anticipated.
Jack Harrison, Crysencio Summerville, Luke Ayling, Mateusz Klich and Diego Llorente could all step up from the bench with Tyler Adams also able to return after serving a one-match suspension on Wednesday.
Adam Forshaw, Rasmus Kristensen, Sam Greenwood and Willy Gnonto are among the most likely starters from the City defeat to make way.
Patrick Bamford has an outside chance of returning from a groin injury but remains doubtful, while Stuart Dallas, Luis Sinisterra and Archie Gray are also confirmed absentees.
The stats
Newcastle have taken 71 points from 35 Premier League matches in 2022, 15 more than both Manchester United and Chelsea.
Up to the World Cup break, Almiron had made the most sprints of any Premier League player (356), 24% more than the next player (Marcus Tavernier — 287).
Gnonto is already among the Premier League’s most frequently fouled players, averaging 3.2 fouls won per 90 minutes this season.
But Leeds have committed the most fouls of any team in the division (190) this term.
And the Whites have conceded more Premier League goals (72) in the calendar year than any other top-flight club.
Prediction
Newcastle will expect to beat Leeds and maintain their challenge for a top-four finish, which illustrates the shift in mindset around the club from a year ago.
Howe has fostered a spirit and collective belief among a group of players that are performing at a consistent level — none more so than Almiron, who could be entering the Player of the Year conversation.
With nine goals in 16 Premier League appearances overall and eight in his last nine starts, the Paraguayan’s productivity is ascending.
His potential to make darting runs into the Leeds box from the right, between Pascal Struijk and Liam Cooper, could be damaging to a Leeds defence that has shipped 17 goals in seven Premier League away games this season and are yet to keep a single clean sheet on the road.
Leeds have conceded the last goal in six of those seven road games and lost the second half in five, which conveniently contrasts with Newcastle’s record of finishing strongly at home — with the Magpies available at 8/11 with LiveScore Bet to win the second half on Saturday.
