MY ACCOUNT
Newcastle have carried last season’s positive form into 2022-23, beating Nottingham Forest in convincing fashion before holding out for a point away at Brighton.
Those results made it seven wins and just two defeats in the Magpies’ last 10 Premier League outings, with Eddie Howe’s men keeping an impressive six clean sheets in that time.
The bad news is that next up come Manchester City, who have signalled their intent in the early stages of their Premier League title defence.
Pep Guardiola’s men swatted away West Ham with a carefree 2-0 stroll in east London while Bournemouth were buried within 37 minutes as City roared into a 3-0 lead before taking their foot off the gas to win 4-0.
There are tests and then there are interrogations – Howe’s men must now try to stand up to the most brutal of cross-examinations.
Team news
Howe’s only confirmed absentee is Jonjo Shelvey, with the midfielder out until Christmas with a hamstring injury, but as many as five Newcastle players will face late fitness tests.
Centre-back Federico Fernandez is unlikely to be risked as he recovers from a calf problem, while left-backs Matt Targett and Jamal Lewis are both rated 50/50 with their respective thigh and calf muscle issues.
Right-back Emil Krafth reported tightness in his hamstring and is being assessed while winger Ryan Fraser is expected to return following a back spasm.
Guardiola’s squad is in good shape with centre-back Aymeric Laporte the only confirmed absentee as he recovers from knee surgery.
Midfielder Kalvin Phillips and academy graduate Cole Palmer both return after missing out last weekend with minor injuries, while full-back Sergio Gomez has joined the squad after signing from Anderlecht in midweek.
The stats
Newcastle have become very efficient at picking up points against the lesser Premier League teams, particularly at St James’ Park where they have lost only one of 16 meetings with teams outside the top four since the start of last season.
However, that resilience has crumbled against the very best opponents, resulting in defeat in all eight matches against teams who qualified for the Champions League, scoring four goals but conceding 25.
Worryingly, the most unforgiving opponents last season were this weekend’s visitors, with City beating them 5-0 in Manchester and 4-0 at St James’ Park to extend the Citizens’ run of just one defeat in their last 29 league meetings with Newcastle.
That 4-0 away win was not even a particularly stand-out result for Guardiola’s men in 2021-22 as they also scored four or more in their trips to Norwich, Leeds, Wolves and Brighton.
City remain unbeaten on the road in the Premier League since losing at Tottenham on the opening day of 2021-22, winning 15 matches and drawing four.
Prediction
While Howe deserves credit for turning Newcastle into a team who routinely see off mid- and lower-table visitors at St James’ Park, there is little evidence to suggest they have found a way to restrain the toughest opponents.
Magpies midfielder Bruno Guimaraes is excellent at picking off weaker teams but the system that creates spaces for him to pick his passes comes unstuck against elite teams, and his relative struggles last weekend against an organised Brighton side do not bode well.
Newcastle were fortunate to get a point from that match, allowing 13 shots, twice clearing the ball off the line, claiming less possession than the Seagulls and managing just 0.2 expected goals to Brighton’s 1.0.
Against Manchester City they will see far less of the ball and face clinical goalscorers in the likes of Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne, who will not waste as many chances as Brighton.
This could be a chastening afternoon for Newcastle, who could concede four or more goals for a fifth time in six meetings with Guardiola’s men.
