MY ACCOUNT
– Nottingham Forest have lost only five of 16 home games this term
– Brighton may not hit top form after their Wembley heartbreak
– Recommended bet: Nottingham Forest or draw double chance
Brighton had their FA Cup dreams cruelly dashed on Sunday evening and it will be a test of Roberto De Zerbi’s motivational skills to get his shattered players up for Wednesday’s trip to Nottingham Forest.
The Seagulls remain right in the race for European places but visit a Forest side who, given how little hope their away form offers, must fight tooth-and-nail in their final three City Ground matches.
And while Steve Cooper’s side head into this match on a Championship-bound trajectory of three points from 11 winless games, Forest’s recent home form has not been disastrous and they remain stubborn on the banks of the River Trent.
A Brighton side who have had limbs drained and minds muddled by 120 minutes and penalty shootout trauma at Wembley may find this a trickier trip than expected.
Team news
Forest centre-forward Chris Wood and defenders Giulian Biancone and Scott McKenna are out for the season, while centre-back Willy Boly and goalkeeper Dean Henderson are also unlikely to play again this term.
Full-back Serge Aurier and midfielders Ryan Yates and Cheikhou Kouyate are out for a couple of weeks and full-back Omar Richards has yet to return from a lengthy layoff.
Gustavo Scarpa is close to recovering from a knee injury and midfielder Jack Colback could return from a concussion but Jonjo Shelvey’s participation is uncertain after he was sent home last weekend.
Brighton have a number of attacking players injured, with playmaker Adam Lallana, winger Jeremy Sarmiento and full-back Tariq Lamptey all unavailable and striker Evan Ferguson a major doubt with an ankle problem.
Centre-forward Danny Welbeck is also a doubt after a receiving a knock at Wembley.
The stats
While Cooper’s men were extremely lucky to draw the reverse fixture 0-0 despite hosts Brighton having 70% possession and 19 shots to their three, Forest are a different beast at the City Ground.
As the table stood on Tuesday lunchtime, Forest had lost only two of 12 matches against visitors placed sixth or lower in the Premier League, winning five and drawing five.
And while Cooper’s men have lost eight and drawn three of their last 11 league games, their home record in that run is a respectable three draws from five – including a 1-1 against Manchester City – and their only defeats being 2-1 to Newcastle and 2-0 to Manchester United.
Brighton remain unbeaten in 16 matches against teams in the bottom half of the Premier League, winning 12. However, their last seven league away trips have seen them draw at Leicester, Crystal Palace and Leeds while losing at crisis club Tottenham.
Prediction
Brighton are short-priced favourites against out-of-form Nottingham Forest and while that is understandable given the respective form and quality of the two teams, the unique circumstances offer the potential for an upset.
De Zerbi’s players were crushed by the cruel nature of last weekend’s FA Cup defeat and an impressive but relatively inexperienced team could struggle to hit their physical and mental peaks on Wednesday due to the rapid turnaround.
Injuries to key forwards could also impact the Seagulls’ attacking prowess, with under 2.5 goals looking a decent addition to Bet Builders given Forest have conceded an average of only one goal per game in their last 12 league home matches.
And a Forest side who generally show up well in front of their own supporters – beating Liverpool and holding the likes of Manchester City, Chelsea and Aston Villa at the City Ground – could nick an unexpected and valuable result.
Back Nottingham Forest or draw double chance, available at 8/5 with LiveScore Bet.
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