MY ACCOUNT
– Oxford have won just once since beating Exeter in the second round
– Arsenal have lifted the FA Cup on a record 14 occasions
– Recommended bet: Eddie Nketiah to score two or more
League One Oxford have the chance to cause an FA Cup third-round upset when they take on Premier League leaders Arsenal at the Kassam Stadium on Monday.
The U’s sit 15th in the third tier after a tough run of just one victory in six league games, most recently losing 1-0 at home to Exeter, and boss Karl Robinson has described their form in 2022-23 as “bang average”, adding that they are “underachieving”.
The opposite could be said of the Gunners, who are on course for a first Premier League title since the ‘Invincibles’ season of 2003-04.
That said, they also failed to score in their last game, a 0-0 draw with Newcastle which ultimately saw their lead at the top of the Premier League cut to five points by Manchester City’s 1-0 win at Chelsea.
However, the Gunners have won the FA Cup on a record 14 occasions and the steely mentality that Mikel Arteta has instilled in his side suggests they should have no issues when they head 90 or so minutes along the M40.
Team news
Both Sam Baldock and Kyle Joseph are sidelined for Oxford with thigh and ankle issues, respectively, although the latter is closing in on full fitness.
With Marcus Browne also out with a hamstring issue, Robinson is lacking a cutting edge but can breathe fresh enthusiasm into the side following the arrival of Brandon Fleming on loan from Hull.
Arsenal are sure to rotate following a busy few weeks since the resumption of the Premier League with only Gabriel Jesus (knee) and Reiss Nelson (thigh) unavailable.
Matt Turner, Rob Holding and Kieran Tierney will help provide experience at the back, while youngsters such as Fabio Vieira and Marquinhos will hope to flourish further forward.
Meanwhile, there could be some first minutes since September for Emile Smith Rowe who is due to return from a groin injury.
One player unlikely to be rested is Eddie Nketiah, who seems to be finding his feet after replacing Jesus and does not have a like-for-like replacement in the squad.
The stats
Oxford have only won one of their five League One matches since beating Exeter 4-1 in the second round.
They had previously beaten National League side Woking 2-1 in the first round.
Goals have been their issue, scoring just five times in their last six in League One.
The U’s have previously reached the fifth round of this tournament five times, most recently in 2016-17, when they beat Newcastle along the way.
Arsenal have won the FA Cup a record 14 times, most recently in 2019-20 when they defeated Chelsea 2-1.
However, they were eliminated in the third round of last year’s competition, losing to then Championship side Nottingham Forest.
That was just the second time since 1995-96 that they have been eliminated in the third round, having also lost to Forest in the 2017-18 campaign.
Interestingly, Arsenal have never won a competitive game away against Oxford, most recently drawing 0-0 at the Manor Ground in March 1988.
However, they have the best away record in the Premier League so far this season, losing only one of their nine matches, winning seven times and drawing the other.
Prediction
With almost 60 places separating the pair on the English footballing ladder, it is difficult to see Arsenal struggling on Monday.
The Gunners were frustrated by Newcastle on Tuesday and their inevitable changes may lead to some initial uncertainty as their fringe stars get used to playing with each other.
In fact, some may have not been on the pitch together since the 1-0 Europa League win over Zurich on November 3.
However, it is unlikely that they will struggle for the full 90 minutes against Robinson’s side and should prevail in some style, especially considering the U’s issues in front of goal.
Therefore, the 10/13 for Arsenal to win to nil with LiveScore Bet may appeal but there could be greater value elsewhere.
A player to look for is Nketiah, who is growing in confidence after replacing the stricken Jesus.
The 23-year-old scored against both West Ham and Brighton before the turn of the year and, with him likely to start at the Kassam Stadium, is 17/4 to score two or more with LiveScore Bet.
