MY ACCOUNT
– Back Aston Villa for a top-10 finish
– Back Leicester for a top-10 finish
– Back Brighton for a top-six finish
– Back Newcastle for a top-four finish
The Premier League returns on Boxing Day and here is plenty of value outside the top markets.
With the markets slow to react to the quality of a handful of dark horses and several teams sorting out worrying early season form, there are plenty of eye-catching prices around.
Villans can snatch a top-10 finish
Aston Villa’s early season form was surprising as the quality within the squad suggested they should be fighting for Europe rather than battling relegation.
Just two victories in their first 11 league games led to the dismissal of Steven Gerrard, who clearly was not getting the best out of his squad amid rumours of a rift between him and some key players.
Those rumours gained credence when Villa smashed Brentford 4-0 immediately after Gerrard’s departure. And while the managerless Villans followed up with a 4-0 defeat at in-form Newcastle, the arrival of Unai Emery seems to have galvanised the club.
The four-time Europa League winner led Villa to their first home win over Manchester United in 27 years in his first match and followed up with a 2-1 success away at in-form Brighton.
Emery’s two league games in charge is a tiny sample from which to draw conclusions but with a more experienced manager leading a strong squad who are just a point off ninth, 6/4 for a top-half finish looks value.
Foxes could join Villa in the top half
Leicester’s poor performance in the summer transfer window adversely affected their start to 2022-23 but Brendan Rodgers has steadied the ship and will now have eyes on the European places.
The summer window saw goalkeeper, club captain and talisman Kasper Schmeichel leaving on the eve of the new campaign, with no signing coming in to replace him.
Star defender Wesley Fofana was sold on the penultimate day of the transfer window and the likes of James Maddison and Youri Tielemans had their heads turned by interest from bigger clubs.
Unsurprisingly, the team was unsettled and looked a mess, taking just one point from their first seven games and spending nine consecutive matchdays in the bottom two of the Premier League.
However, the board’s faith in Rodgers has paid off. The club’s star men have rediscovered their focus, incoming defender Wout Faes has slotted in superbly and Leicester again look like the team who reached the semi-finals of last season’s Europa Conference League.
Five wins in their last eight games demonstrate the Foxes’ dramatic turnaround in form and a run of six clean sheets in eight is a testament to Faes’ quality in the centre of a defence that has rediscovered its confidence.
At 6/4 and just two points off ninth place, Leicester look a good bet to make it six consecutive top-half finishes.
Highflying Seagulls can swoop for top-six finish
Brighton could take advantage of the European commitments of those around them to grab a top-six finish.
Seagulls supporters feared their impressive rise might finally end when Graham Potter left for Chelsea, but replacement Roberto De Zerbi looks an excellent fit for such a well-run club.
Brighton sit seventh and have already won away at Manchester United and thrashed Chelsea 4-1 – and are unlucky not to be even higher given their dominance in a couple of matches that ended all-square.
They will have to leapfrog one of the big teams to land odds of 5/1 for a top-six finish but have the quality to take points off any opponent – drawing 3-3 at Liverpool in De Zerbi’s first match – and have a significant advantage in having no European football to distract focus.
The likes of Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea have been struggling for consistency and have tough European matches to prepare for, so the Seagulls could swoop in for a top-six finish.
Magpies can hold on for Champions League place
Newcastle are in a similar but stronger position to Brighton – flying high in the league and with no European commitments to distract them.
The Magpies have lost just once all season – an unlucky 98th-minute defeat at Liverpool – and will fancy their chances of clinging on to a top-four spot. They have already drawn 3-3 with Manchester City, claimed a point away at both Manchester United and Brighton, and have beaten Tottenham and Chelsea.
There is plenty of quality in the Newcastle squad and most of their rivals for a top-four finish are sure to be hampered by injuries and fatigue as a gruelling World Cup-interrupted European and domestic campaign catches up with them.
Newcastle will be fresher than their rivals and have the quality to hold onto a Champions League place at 11/8.
