MY ACCOUNT
– The first two round of 16 games take place on Saturday
– USA to press all the right buttons against the Dutch
– Another clean sheet for Martinez against Socceroos
The first two quarter-finalists at Qatar 2022 will be decided on Saturday when the USA aim to sink the Netherlands and Argentina will attempt to put down Australia’s challenge in the World Cup round of 16.
Dutch to find USA hard work
Bet 1: Back USA or Tie in 90 minutes
The USA have a good record of not losing World Cup matches — suffering only one defeat in their last 11 contests inside the 90 minutes — their problem has been that they do not win enough of them.
But Gregg Berhalter’s side have some momentum coming off the 1-0 victory over Iran, which showed his young side can cope with pressured situations.
They actually should have won more comfortably and should not fear a Netherlands side that has yet to find their qualifying form in Qatar.
In fact, their intense pressing game could produce similar results to the joy a similar-styled Ecuador got in their 1-1 draw with the Dutch in Group A when they outgunned Louis van Gaal’s side by almost 1.5 xG.
Bet 2: Back both teams to score
Both teams have scored in 14 of the 24 round of 16 games played across the last three World Cup tournaments.
And there is no reason to think this will be any different to the majority of those contests between teams that deserved to come through the group phase.
Teams tend to play differently from one phase to another — something Berhalter has spoken about in the build-up to this tournament — and the USA coach looks set to let the handbrake off here.
The Netherlands will expect to be pressed aggressively, but they possess one of the most press-resistant players around in Frenkie de Jong, who could enable them to break through the Americans’ defensive lines easier than others have done.
Bet 3: Back Tyler Adams to receive a card in 90 minutes
Tyler Adams saw his first yellow card of the tournament in Tuesday’s win over Iran and has now picked up three cautions in his last six national team games — two of which were friendlies.
The Leeds midfielder has been no stranger to a booking in the Premier League this term, accumulating three yellows and one red for the Whites, and could land himself in hot water just by doing his job against the Dutch.
La Albiceleste can keep it clean
Bet 1: Back Argentina to win to nil
Argentina have faced only three opposition shots across their three games in Qatar — no team has allowed fewer. Of course, two of those shots resulted in goals against Saudi Arabia, but the stat illustrates how little Emiliano Martinez has had to do between the posts.
Martinez has kept clean sheets in 10 of his last 12 starts for La Albiceleste, protected by a backline that has not always been the same with players coming in and out.
Whoever Lionel Scaloni fields on Saturday should be able to provide ample protection for the Aston Villa custodian, as Australia are unlikely to venture forward too much or with too many numbers committed to the attack.
Bet 2: Back a goal to be scored outside the penalty area in 90 minutes
One of the most defensive teams left in the tournament, Australia’s method is to sit deep in a low block. It would be a surprise, as it was for Argentina, to see them try anything as adventurous as Saudi Arabia’s high defensive line that led to so many offsides in the opening game.
Scaloni’s side will need to be patient and not try to overcomplicate their attacks by attempting low-percentage balls into tiny spaces when they are probably best served by shooting from range.
Lionel Messi has already scored once from outside the box and Enzo Fernandez showed he can fire them in from any angle too.
With Messi as yet to get any joy from a free-kick in this tournament, it may only be a matter of time before he makes the net ripple from a set-piece too.
Bet 3: Back Jackson Irvine to receive a card in 90 minutes
The St Pauli midfielder has been cautioned six times in 16 Bundesliga.2 appearances this term and has two yellow cards on his record from his last four Australia games.
Irvine will be asked to close down clever, more skilled players in the middle of the park and protect his centre-backs from having to make desperate challenges, so there is every chance he incurs the wrath of the referee.
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