MY ACCOUNT
– Southampton have lost six of their last eight matches
– Grimsby are 16th in League Two but are unbeaten in three matches
– Recommended bet: Southampton to win 2-1
Southampton are rock-solid favourites to see off Grimsby Town in their FA Cup fifth-round tie at St Mary’s.
This is the first time Grimsby have reached round five since 1995-96 and the League Two side have beaten four teams from a higher level to do so, culminating in their 3-0 replay success over Championship side Luton in the last round.
Premier League backmarkers Southampton are trying to get to Wembley while fighting for their top-flight lives and come into this game on the back of a sorry 1-0 loss at Leeds at the weekend.
The Saints have played four lower-league opponents in both cups this season and have made hard work of beating three of them, needing penalties to see off Sheffield Wednesday in the League Cup in which they also pipped Lincoln 2-1.
They beat Blackpool, also 2-1, in round four to book this date with Grimsby.
Team news
Centre-back Mohamed Salisu and striker Mislav Orsic could both be available for Southampton after injuries.
However, striker Che Adams looks set to miss out with a knock, with long-term crocks Juan Larios and Tino Livramento also sidelined while defender James Bree is cup-tied.
Boss Ruben Selles is under pressure to make changes with keeper Gavin Bazunu quite likely to be taken out of the firing line and Willy Caballero donning the gloves.
As for Grimsby, manager Paul Hurst has said winger Otis Khan is available again after a six-week absence but is not guaranteed to go straight back into the side.
New frontmen George Lloyd and Mikey O’Neil are cup-tied while Owen Gallacher, Kieran Green and Harry Clifton are all missing.
The stats
Southampton go into the game on a run of six defeats in their last eight games in all competitions and now find themselves four points from safety at the foot of the Premier League.
Their top scorer is midfielder James Ward-Prowse with six league goals – the team as a whole has scored just 19 times in 24 top-flight outings.
Grimsby have suffered three defeats in 11 and come into the game on the back of successive draws against Harrogate and League Two leaders Leyton Orient.
Prediction
There are 65 places between Southampton and Grimsby in football’s pyramid so the Saints, with home advantage as well, ought to be good things.
However, at the moment – and especially at the odds – they make little appeal as a 90-minute bet at a short price, especially given the trouble they have had against the likes of Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln this season.
And Grimsby, with seven of their 10 league wins this season coming on the road, will give it their all.
They may be limited but there will be no lack of effort from Paul Hurst’s men and they can keep the Saints honest.
The Premier League side’s class and options off the bench are expected to tell in the end so the Tie/Southampton Half Time/Full Time result becomes a big runner, so too Southampton over 1.5 goals in the second half.
But they are struggling, Grimsby are solid and a correct-score bet is the preferred way in, with the Saints progressing in familiar fashion.
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