MY ACCOUNT
– Newcastle are in great form but their price has come in artificially short
– Southampton have saved most of their best performances for the big teams
– Recommended bet: Back the draw at 5/2
Newcastle are starting to look like serious players in the shake-up for European places and victory over fellow top-four chasers Tottenham a fortnight ago only adds to the interest.
However, while struggling Southampton might not seem the most obvious of litmus tests to their Champions League ambitions, a trip to the south coast has proved tricky for a number of the big teams this season and Eddie Howe’s men will have to be at their best to win at St Mary’s.
Ralph Hasenhuttl’s youthful Saints side are having a strange season, sitting fourth from bottom in the Premier League despite rarely looking poor and regularly testing vaunted top-tier rivals.
But with the bottom three far too close for comfort, Hasenhuttl needs points, not just promising performances — he will be hoping for both this weekend.
Team news
Hasenhuttl has relatively few injury concerns but is having to improvise at right-back, with both Kyle Walker-Peters and Valentino Livramento out until around the turn of the year.
Centre-back Armel Bella-Kotchap looks set to return following a dislocated shoulder that had kept him out since mid-October and Romeo Lavia may also make his comeback.
Newcastle have a number of injury concerns as they make the long journey south, with striker Alexander Isak out until after the World Cup and midfielder Joelinton suspended for having picked up five yellow cards.
Centre-back Fabian Schar will have a hamstring problem assessed before the match but Matt Ritchie, Emil Krafth, Karl Darlow and Paul Dummett all remain out.
The stats
While Southampton sit 17th in the Premier League and have a poor home record, it is fair to say they have been somewhat unfortunate in several matches this season.
They have produced a greater expected goals tally than their opponents in three of their seven defeats this season and if those matches had been drawn rather than lost, Southampton would be in mid-table.
They have also had a very tough set of home fixtures and have played well in most of those.
The Saints beat Chelsea 2-1, held Arsenal to a 1-1 draw a fortnight ago and were at least equal to Manchester United but lost 1-0.
While Newcastle have often looked superb on home soil, on the road they have won just two of their six league outings.
Defeat at Liverpool was admittedly unfortunate but they have also drawn at Brighton when under siege for long spells and drew 1-1 at toothless Wolves.
The 0-0 draw at Manchester United and 2-1 win at Tottenham in their last outing were impressive enough, but the victory in north London was greatly aided by a goalkeeping howler from Hugo Lloris and some wasteful finishing — Spurs recorded a higher xG value, had more shots and more possession but were undone by their own errors.
Prediction
Southampton’s up and down performances can be expected from one of the youngest and least experienced teams in the Premier League and, at the prices, they could be worth backing to grab an unexpected point against Newcastle.
The Magpies are going strong and have been formidable at times at St James’ Park.
However, their away performances have not been as impressive as the results, and while there is plenty to be said for getting results from matches you are not dominating, it makes them a risky bet.
There is a lot of noise around Newcastle at the moment and while it is justifiable to a point, it has had a disproportionate effect on their prices.
While they might deserve to be slight favourites at St Mary’s, they look a little too short having won just two of six away games in the top flight.
Instead, it might be better to have a smaller try at a draw — available at 5/2 with LiveScore Bet.
Saints have saved their best performances for the better visitors to St Mary’s and they could land another result at a juicy price.
