MY ACCOUNT
– Southampton have failed to keep a single clean sheet at St Mary’s this season
– Improving Forest have netted against the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea in recent matches
– Recommended bet: Back Over 2.5 goals
If not must-win then both clubs will regard this encounter as must-not-lose when rock-bottom Southampton host 18th-placed Nottingham Forest.
A month before the World Cup break, Forest looked doomed – the squad was a mess and the team had collected a meagre five points from their first 10 Premier League matches.
However, patience seems to be paying off. The club stuck by Steve Cooper and the manager who achieved a miraculous promotion for Forest last season has started to turn things around.
Southampton took a different approach, sacking Ralph Hasenhuttl after a run of six defeats in nine.
But replacement Nathan Jones has lost each of his first three Premier League matches in charge, heaping pressure onto the Saints’ new – and relatively inexperienced – head coach.
Team news
Southampton goalkeeper Alex McCarthy has an outside chance of returning from an ankle sprain and Samuel Edozie should feature after it emerged that it was cramp rather than injury that forced the winger off against Fulham.
Defensive midfielder Romeo Lavia returned from a thigh injury at Craven Cottage but full-backs Juan Larios and Tino Livramento remain unavailable, while attacker Theo Walcott could be another week or two from returning from a calf problem.
Cooper looks set to be without five Forest players for this trip to the south coast.
Giulian Biancone is out until the end of the season with a cruciate ligament injury and attacker Jesse Lingard and defensive midfielder Cheikhou Kouyate are not expected back until February and March, respectively.
Centre-back Moussa Niakhate and left-back Omar Richards have barely played for the club since signing in the summer but both are closing in on a return to the first team.
The stats
Southampton have lost nine of their last 12 Premier League matches, beating only Bournemouth since the end of August, and have won only one of eight games at St Mary’s this season – a 2-1 defeat of Chelsea during the death throes of Thomas Tuchel’s reign.
They have also failed to keep a single clean sheet in any of their 10 home games in all competitions, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game, with even League One Lincoln netting in a 2-1 Carabao Cup defeat at St Mary’s.
Nottingham Forest took just four points from their first eight matches of 2022-23 at an average of 0.5 points per game. But that rate has more than doubled in their last nine matches – Cooper’s men have taken 10 points at an average of 1.11 points per game.
Forest have lost to only Arsenal and Manchester United in their last seven league games, beating Liverpool and holding Chelsea to a 1-1 draw.
While Cooper’s men have struggled for goals on the road, that is in large part because they have already faced away trips to each of the top four, plus Brighton and a then in-form Leicester side.
Prediction
Forest’s survival bid has come to life in recent matches and from looking doomed, they now have a realistic chance of avoiding the drop.
Saints’ season has gone in the opposite direction and they will feel they must start beating the likes of Nottingham Forest at home if they are to avoid relegation.
Home advantage might be enough for them to nick all three points against a side who have not travelled particularly well this season, but Saints are hard to trust given their five-match losing streak.
Therefore, the safer bet is to go for goals.
Southampton have failed to keep a clean sheet all season, while Forest have netted against Liverpool, Chelsea, Brentford and Crystal Palace in their last six games, so both teams could contribute to a high-scoring encounter.
Adding ‘both teams to score’ to a Bet Builder selection looks a decent option but the best bet is to back over 2.5 goals – available at 21/20 with LiveScore Bet.
