MY ACCOUNT
Neither Swansea nor Hull will be happy with their season so far, with Swansea’s promotion hopes replaced by relegation concerns and Hull’s early season bubble bursting in a worrying fashion.
The Swans currently sit third from bottom in the Championship, with a lack of cutting edge and the concession of late goals undermining some otherwise promising performances.
Hull’s more modest expectations rocketed after a run of three wins and only one defeat in their first six league outings, but a collapse in form that has seen them lose four of their last five Championship matches has dampened the early-season optimism.
Team news
Swansea manager Russell Martin has a decision to make over striker Michael Obafemi. The Ireland international has not started any of the last four games after a transfer to Burnley fell through, but Martin could use the striker to help with Swansea’s goalscoring issues.
Midfielder Liam Walsh will be out for much of the season after rupturing his Achilles in pre-season, while striker Liam Cullen and centre-back Joel Latibeaudiere expect to return from shoulder injuries soon after the international break.
Hull’s Benjamin Tetteh will be out for several weeks with a hamstring strain, and he joins a busy treatment room at the MKM Stadium.
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh could be out for another couple of months following surgery on his hamstring, Mali international Adama Traore looks set to be out until the new year, but Dogukan Sinik is on track to return after the international break.
James Scott is suffering from shin splints and has yet to feature this season, Greg Docherty has a few weeks left before returning, and the same applies to Brandon Fleming, who damaged a metatarsal in pre-season. Youngsters Vaughn Covil and Salah Oulad M’Hand remain out with knee and groin problems, respectively.
However, deadline-day Chelsea loan signings Harvey Vale and Xavier Simons could come into the squad now they have had a couple of weeks of training with the team.
The stats
There is almost nothing within Swansea’s underlying numbers that suggest they will stay down in the lower reaches of the Championship for too long.
Only five teams have conceded fewer shots on goal in the Championship than Martin’s men, and only four have produced more shots on target.
It is mainly a combination of poor finishing and bad luck that has been the Swans’ undoing, and neither problem should persist.
Hull’s stats are far more concerning, and even when they were flying high, having navigated tricky tests against Norwich, Burnley, Bristol City and Preston, there was an unconvincing feel to their early season fortunes.
Oscar Estupinan’s seven-goal haul sums up the Tigers’ early season fortunes – the Colombian striker leads the Championship goalscoring charts, but over half of his goals have come from little more than a yard out, with opposition errors, lucky bounces and decisive deflections helping him boost his tally.
Being in the right place at the right time is a skill, of course, but Estupinan and Hull have also undoubtedly got lucky on multiple occasions, and that fortune was never going to last an entire campaign.
And the stats suggest that Arveladze’s side will need more than luck to arrest their current slide, with no Championship side allowing more shots against them and only Reading taking fewer attempts at goal. Lady Luck will only bail out the Tigers so many times.
Prediction
There has been enough in Swansea’s performances, including last time out in a spirited injury-time defeat to table-topping Sheffield United, to suggest that Martin’s men are still playing with enough belief for their quality to be decisive against Hull.
The Swans are a possession-based side who will deny Arveladze’s men the ball and should carve out plenty of chances against the Championship’s least secure defence.
While chances do not always translate into goals for Swansea, they showed signs of promise in their final three matches, and they should make the most of their dominance over the tame Tigers.
