France take on the Netherlands for a place in the Women’s Euro 2022 semi-finals — and tonight’s clash looks too close to call.
Les Bleues claimed top spot in Group D and were seconds away from securing a 100% record before Iceland equalised in the 102nd minute of their final game.
Meanwhile, the Oranje missed out on first place in Group C on goal difference, having taken seven points from a possible nine.
Both teams netted eight times in their three outings and will fancy their chances of progressing further. We have identified five factors that could swing this evening’s tie.
Katoto absence
Marie-Antoinette Katoto — one of the best forwards in world football in the world today — has been ruled out of the remainder of the tournament after rupturing her anterior cruciate ligament in the 2-1 win over Belgium.
The loss of the Paris Saint-Germain forward means France will have to make some changes to fill that void.
Manager Corinne Diacre admitted it was a major blow but insisted her team would fight through adversity.
She said: “What was difficult is that we momentarily celebrated our qualification and our first place but, the next morning, we were a little less happy.
“We quickly moved on to something else at the request of Marie-Antoinette, who asked us to continue to make the effort and especially to go to the end, for this group that is worth it.”
Break the streak
This will be France’s fourth European Championship quarter-final.
They have failed to progress in any of their previous three — being eliminated on penalties by the Netherlands in 2009, on spot-kicks again by Denmark in 2013 and by England after a 1-0 defeat in 2017.
The loss of Katoto hurts them but they still have a strong group of players who can beat anyone on their day.
It is by no means now or never for France — but they have everything required to make it to their first ever semi-final.
However, Les Bleues do have a record of losing to the defending champions.
Germany registered a 3-0 win in 2005 and then a 5-1 triumph in 2009 and went on to win the competition again on both occasions
Chaos maker
Clara Mateo may have only appeared in two of France’s matches so far — completing 90 minutes just once — but only one player at Euro 2022 can better her total of 11 chances created.
The Paris FC forward assisted a goal in each of her starts and is currently creating a chance every 14 minutes.
With Katoto out, it could be an opportunity for the 24-year-old to step up and make herself the main woman in this team.
The ability is certainly there and she is in outstanding form going into this evening’s encounter at the New York Stadium.
Knockout success
The Netherlands, by comparison, have a 100% record in quarter-final ties at the Euros.
They beat France on penalties in 2009 and downed Sweden 2-0 on their way to winning the competition in 2017.
That is sure to give the Oranje plenty of confidence going into this tie, which may just hand them the edge if tonight goes down to the wire.
Spreading the threat
Mark Parsons’ Netherlands outfit had six different goalscorers in the group stages.
Only Germany (seven) can better that record and it makes the Dutch a dangerous opponent as they do not possess just one or two goal threats.
That total does not include Vivianne Miedema, who has failed to score so far after only featuring in one match following a positive coronavirus test.
If the Arsenal star can break her duck, it may give the Netherlands the edge but France are a quality outfit and Lieke Martens’ absence will be felt.
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