Under The Spotlight: Three reasons why Burnley can beat Southampton

Burnley’s six-season stay in the Premier League is in danger of coming to an end — but they have a chance to boost their survival prospects by beating Southampton tonight.

The Clarets’ board caused a stir by sacking long-serving boss Sean Dyche last Friday, though the team did show signs of improvement in their 1-1 draw at West Ham 48 hours later.

Wout Weghorst opened the scoring before Maxwel Cornet missed a penalty, dragging his effort wide of Lukasz Fabianski’s goal. The Ivorian was eventually made to curse his error when Tomas Soucek equalised in the second half.

However, interim boss Mike Jackson remained upbeat after the game and the uncertainty as to when Dyche’s successor will be appointed means he will remain in charge for the visit of the Saints.

Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side have enjoyed another rollercoaster season and, after claiming a big win at the weekend against Arsenal to fend off any lingering relegation fears, could just prove to be the perfect opponents for their hosts.

Here are three reasons why the Lancashire club can be hopeful of victory this evening.

Tactical tweaks

Dyche’s decade in charge saw Burnley become synonymous with a clear and functional way of playing.

The 50-year-old was one of the few top-flight coaches to have stayed loyal to 4-4-2, and his preferred shape worked a treat until this season.

Jackson again employed that formation against West Ham but, as Saints boss Hasenhuttl has acknowledged in the build-up to tonight’s game, there were a few differences in how the Clarets approached the match.

Hasenhuttl told reporters: “I see that they played a little bit more football and tried to use some spaces a bit more. The full-backs were a little bit more offensive in some moments, so a few smaller margins they have changed.”

These subtle tweaks allowed Burnley to play with more freedom and could give them an edge, with the Austrian boss clearly uncertain of what to expect.

Unfocused Saints

Southampton are 13th in the table, falling slightly from a season-high ninth place at the end of February.

Saturday’s victory against the Gunners ended a run of six without a win — a streak that saw them slip out of the European conversation, meaning they could now be forgiven for having an eye on the end of the season.

The global pandemic has led to a greater tightening of schedules, with tournaments being rearranged and fixture lists having to be frequently reshuffled.

This game was pushed back from March 19 due to Southampton’s progress in the FA Cup, and some squads will inevitably now be feeling more fatigued than others.

Visiting players may subconsciously be half a yard off the pace due to them having little to play for. If so, the survival-seeking Clarets could take advantage.

Turf Moor factor

Although their home record this season suggests otherwise, generally speaking, visiting teams do not like playing at Turf Moor.

Southampton may have won there last season, but that was their first victory at the ground since 2007. 

Having drawn 2-2 at St Mary’s in October, Jackson will be desperate to go one better and see his side claim just their fourth home league win of the campaign.

With Wolves the next visitors to Turf Moor on Sunday afternoon, six points from their two home encounters this week could lift the Clarets above Everton and into safety.