MY ACCOUNT
– West Ham’s recent upturn in form took a hit with their limp defeat at Tottenham last weekend
– Nottingham Forest have lost just two of six away games in trips to teams outside the top six
– Recommended bet: Draw
West Ham manager David Moyes is under intense pressure after a poor performance and a 2-0 defeat to Tottenham last weekend left the east Londoners in the bottom three of the Premier League.
With teams around them picking up unexpected results in late weeks, Moyes’ men are now in the thick of the relegation scrap, and a home defeat to Nottingham Forest would be a hammer blow ahead of a tricky run of fixtures.
Forest looked doomed in late autumn, but an impressive run of results over the winter have moved them away from immediate danger and kept them outside of the bottom three since early January.
However, with just ten points separating 11th place from 20th in the Premier League, Forest boss Steve Cooper will be all too aware of how easy it would be to slip back into trouble and will be reminding his players that this is a must-not-lose relegation scrap.
Both managers will be desperate for a win, but avoiding defeat might be the priority.
Team news
West Ham could welcome back attacking midfielder Lucas Paqueta and centre-back Kurt Zouma from shoulder and thigh injuries, respectively, but both will face late fitness tests.
Attacker Maxwel Cornet remains a couple of weeks from returning following a calf issue.
Nottingham Forest could have as many as 11 players missing this weekend.
Centre-backs Willy Boly, Scott McKenna and Moussa Niakhate are unavailable through injury, as are full-backs Giulian Biancone and Omar Richards and goalkeeper Dean Henderson.
Defensive midfielder Cheikhou Kouyate is still a month from returning from a thigh injury, and striker Taiwo Awoniyi hopes to be back in a fortnight or so following a groin problem.
Attacker Jesse Lingard, midfielder Ryan Yates and full-back Serge Aurier each have an outside chance of returning from injury and illness but are unlikely to make the starting XI.
The stats
Following last weekend’s fortuitous victory against Manchester City at the City Ground, only eight Premier League teams have collected more points at home than Nottingham Forest this season.
However, they have been far less impressive on the road. No top-tier team has collected fewer than Forest’s six points from 11 away games, and their only away win came at bottom-side Southampton.
That said, Forest have had the trickiest set of away games, with five of their seven away defeats coming at teams in the current top six. Against the rest, they have a reasonable record of one win, three draws and only two losses.
West Ham have lost just two of their previous eight games in all competitions, and while they were disappointing at Tottenham last weekend, Moyes’ men were unfortunate in the other defeat in that run away at Wolves.
West Ham had a higher expected goals rating against Wolves and will justifiably have felt unfortunate to have left Molineux with nothing.
Prediction
Last weekend’s defeat was a setback for West Ham, but they had been relatively solid before that, picking up back-to-back draws against Chelsea and Newcastle, beating Everton in the league, defeating Brentford in the FA Cup and earning a point away at Leeds.
While their league position remains precarious, the Hammers’ form since the turn of the year has been solid enough for them to expect a result against a Forest side who struggle for goals away from home.
Given Forest’s record of just three goals scored in 11 league away games allied to West Ham’s own struggles in the final third, netting less than a goal per game in 2022-23, adding under 2.5 goals to Bet Builders looks a sensible approach.
But the draw looks like a value bet, with neither team doing enough to demand support and both managers arguably content with a point from a game they dare not lose.
